What it means to be in 1st place entering June
The climate is heating up, and the baseball season is in full swing. As we enter June, it’s time to take a superb have a look at the standings. Of course there’s nonetheless loads of baseball left, however developments that started in April have solidified additional in May. Just a few third of the way in which into the season, it’s time to essentially take into consideration whether or not our present division leaders are for actual.
Let’s check out these leaders and what the postseason discipline might seem like come October. Note, all stats beneath exclude the shortened 2020 season and as a substitute have a look at full seasons for the affect and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place
Since 1996 — the primary full season with a minimum of one Wild Card in every league after the ‘95 campaign was limited to 144 games due to the strike that began in 1994 — 91 of 156 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering June 1. That’s 58 p.c of division winners.
Pay particular consideration, Rays, Twins, Rangers, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers followers — these groups are our present division leaders heading into June.
Last season, three of the six division leaders on June 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Yankees and Astros every gained their divisions, whereas the Twins, who led the AL Central coming into June, missed the postseason totally. In the NL, the Dodgers gained their division, however the Mets and Brewers, who led the East and Central coming into June, respectively, didn’t. The Mets clinched a Wild Card spot, however the Brewers missed the playoffs.
Since 1996, 14 of the 26 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions coming into June. Before the Astros final yr, the final winner in a full season to take action was the ’18 Red Sox.
The defending champion Astros should not in first place coming into June. How uncommon is that? Not as uncommon as you would possibly suppose. Of the 25 groups to win the World Series since 1996 and play in May the subsequent yr, simply seven have discovered themselves in first place via May that subsequent yr.
We’ve coated the truth that the AL East might be traditionally sturdy, but it surely bears a recap right here. The division has a mixed .587 successful proportion, which might be the very best by a division in a single season. The present file for a five-team division? .541 by the 2022 AL East.
Every AL East workforce is above .500. If you’re curious, the most recent right into a season that a complete division has been above .500 was the NL East in 2005, based on the Elias Sports Bureau. All 5 groups had been over .500 via October 1, the second-to-last day of the season. The Nationals then misplaced their finale to complete 81-81.
This yr’s leaders total
Of this yr’s present division leaders coming into June, every has had a minimum of a share of that lead coming into June a minimum of as soon as since 2018, besides one. The Rangers are on this spot for the primary time since ‘16, which can also be the final time they gained the AL West.
Each of the present leaders has gained its division a minimum of as soon as since 2019 — aside from the aforementioned Rangers.
Even two months in, there’s nonetheless loads of baseball left to be performed. But followers of the six division leaders can take some consolation in realizing that traditionally, greater than half of these groups have gone on to win their divisions. And for followers of groups that aren’t in playoff positions, seeing how shut all the races are is solace in and of itself. And whereas 58 p.c of groups with a share of the division lead coming into June win that division, loads don’t. Only time will inform. That’s why they play the sport — and, fortunately, we get to comply with alongside.
