21 minutes in the past
In my final Pipeline Inbox two weeks in the past, I mentioned how the consensus high 5 prospects on this Draft (Louisiana State outfielder Dylan Crews and right-hander Paul Skenes, Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford, highschool outfielders Walker Jenkins and Max Clark) are the most effective high 5 in at the very least a decade. That prompted extra questions in regards to the high 5, so let’s get to them…
The high 5 prospects within the upcoming Draft are just about a consensus. Among these 5, which of them would instantly make the Top 100 Prospects checklist and the place? — Dwayne H., DeSoto, Texas
In every of the final two years, 11 gamers have gone from the Draft to our midseason Top 100. All 5 of Crews, Skenes, Langford, Jenkins and Clark will clear the bar slightly simply and definitely ought to rank on the highest half of the checklist.
Several gamers will graduate from the present Top 100 earlier than we replace a few months from now. Here’s the place I’d place Crews and Co. on the present checklist, evaluating them to prospects on the identical place who have already got confirmed themselves towards harder competitors within the Minors.
A nationwide crosschecker instructed me this spring that he’d take Crews over everybody on our preseason Top 100, apart from Gunnar Henderson. I will not be that aggressive, however he may match forward of the Nationals’ James Wood (No. 7) on the excessive finish and no decrease than forward of the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong (No. 13) on the low finish.
The solely pitchers on our Top 100 who can match Skenes’ mixture of stuff and strike are the Marlins’ Eury Pérez (No. 6) and the Phillies’ Andrew Painter (No. 10), and Painter has but to pitch this yr after spraining his elbow throughout Spring Training. Skenes and Crews might be linked simply as intently on the Top 100 as they’ve been at LSU.
Langford has torn up the Southeastern Conference as a lot as Crews has, so he would not rank too far behind him. You may debate his ceiling versus the ground of the Brewers’ Sal Frelick (No. 22). I’d be extra conservative with the 2 excessive schoolers, who’ve much more upside, however I’d place Jenkins and Clark in the identical neighborhood because the Yankees’ Jasson Domínguez (No. 35).
What workforce is most certainly to go off script within the high 5 picks within the Draft, inflicting one of many consensus high 5 gamers to fall to No. 6 or 7? What participant would that be for? — Matthew B., Minneapolis
Pittsburgh might have achieved a reduction cope with Henry Davis when it had the No. 1 decide in 2021, however there wasn’t a Crews or Skenes (or Langford or Jenkins or Clark) on the board two years in the past. I do not actually see any motive for any of the primary 5 groups (Pirates, National, Tigers, Rangers, Twins) to veer away from the consensus high 5 abilities.
If considered one of them does, I assume Minnesota can be your best option. The Twins choose fifth and maybe they will not love whichever of the large 5 is on the market as a lot as they did the others, main them to chop a deal to save cash to allow them to spend lavishly on decide No. 34.
Minnesota would not have a lot catching in its group, so on this situation perhaps it will be interested in Virginia’s Kyle Teel, who matches someplace within the high 10 picks on expertise. Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander struck out a season-high 13 in his final begin, so perhaps the Twins may decide to take a pitcher they would not have anticipated to be accessible coming into the yr.
Again, nevertheless, I do not actually see this taking place.
With 4 of the 5 clear finest prospects enjoying the identical place, it needs to be outfielders. Besides Crews, Langford, Jenkins, Clark — all of whom can be reliable candidates to go No. 1 total in a typical Draft — different potential first-rounders embrace Vanderbilt’s Enrique Bradfield, excessive schooler Dillon Head, Virginia Tech’s Jack Hurley and Arizona’s Chase Davis.
The quickest the primary 4 outfielders have come off the board in a single Draft is the highest seven picks in 2003: Delmon Young (No. 1), Chris Lubanski (No. 5), Ryan Harvey (No. 6) and Nick Markakis (No. 7). That file ought to fall in July. The solely different instances that 4 outfielders have gone within the first 10 picks had been 1995 (Darin Erstad at No. 1, Jose Cruz Jr. at No. 3, Jaime Jones at No. 6, Geoff Jenkins at No. 9) and 1989 (Jeff Jackson at No. 4, Donald Harris at No. 5, Paul Coleman at No. 6 and Earl Cunningham at No. 8).
I’ll have one other first-round projection out subsequent week and because it will get nearer to the Draft beginning on July 9, we’ll have much more intel and I’m certain we’ll prolong our predictions via all the supplemental first spherical. That would embody each the Mets (No. 32) and the Dodgers (No. 36), whose high picks dropped 10 spots as a result of they exceeded the aggressive steadiness tax threshold by greater than $40 million.
To maintain you over till then, this is a guess for each of these golf equipment:
32. Mets: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest
Wilken has set single-season (26) and profession (66) dwelling run data at Wake Forest, the No. 1-ranked workforce within the nation. Pete Alonso had an identical offensive profile when the Mets made him a second-round select of Florida in 2016.
36. Dodgers: Tanner Witt, RHP, Texas
The Dodgers made a robust run on the then-unsignable Witt in highschool three years in the past, and he was a slam-dunk first-rounder earlier than having Tommy John surgical procedure in March 2022. He returned to the mound on May 1 and whereas his stuff hasn’t come all the way in which again but, this could possibly be a steal.
