These teams still have holes to fill
The Winter Meetings are over, however the winter is just not, and there’s nonetheless work to be performed. There are a handful of high-end free brokers obtainable, and trades to be made, and actually there’s not a single workforce on the market – no matter whether or not they’ve already made an addition or not – that may realistically sit again, calm down and say: Yes. We’re performed.
But the panorama has shifted, hasn’t it? Strengths are totally different than they have been per week in the past, for some groups, and others have misplaced gamers they thought perhaps they’d have again. It’s value resetting what contenders must do, and the way they’ll accomplish that.
The very first thing we have to do is separate out the underside group of groups, which we’ll do by going over to the FanGraphs WAR projections, and eliminating the ten lowest-projected groups for 2023. Nine of the ten weren’t wherever close to .500 in 2022 anyway – the Giants, at precisely .500, will probably lose their irreplaceable ace Carlos Rodón – and whilst you conceivably might see San Francisco or Arizona problem for one of many Wild Card spots in 2023, these are usually the groups with rosters the place the largest gap is “almost everywhere.”
That leaves us with 20 contenders, or no less than groups which may wish to assume they’re. (These are present as of Friday morning, although it doesn’t embrace Boston’s settlement with Masataka Yoshida, who doesn’t but have a projection as a participant with out MLB expertise.)
Then, we’ll have a look at a number of the positions with the bottom projections. Of course, it is extra of a tenet for us than a basic rule, and we’ll add slightly subjectivity in that. That’s as a result of projections aren’t ironclad predictions, and since new additions would possibly make for gamers shifting positions, so there are lots of shifting components right here. For instance: The Angels are projected to have the Twenty seventh-best first base state of affairs, however we predict they’ll wager on Jared Walsh’s return to well being and the depth offered by Gio Urshela quite than make a transfer. The Orioles don’t charge properly at brief, however Jorge Mateo is an appropriate stopgap, and so they have extremely regarded prospects coming. You get the thought. We’ll skip these varieties right here.
(We’ll additionally ignore bullpens. Every workforce, always, might use one other reliever.)
All of which leaves us with these notable bother spots.
Astros C (projected: twenty ninth)
It’s potential that Houston doesn’t truly see this as a weak point, as a result of it did simply win a World Series with Martín Maldonado, who has earned a rightful status as a extremely regarded handler of pitchers. But he did hit solely .186/.248/.352, a yr after he hit solely .172/.272/.300. That’s a 63 OPS+ over 805 plate appearances, which is sort of unthinkably poor offense. That speaks to the standard of his catching, however he does flip 37 subsequent summer season, and the Astros did really feel the necessity final summer season to amass Christian Vázquez, who began two World Series video games, together with the Game 4 no-hitter. Vázquez is now a free agent.
Potential fixes: Trade for Danny Jansen; re-sign Vázquez; signal Omar Narváez
Red Sox 2B (projected: Twenty seventh) or SS (projected: nineteenth)
This relies upon totally on which spot Trevor Story performs, although there’s an excessive amount of concern over whether or not Story nonetheless possesses the arm power to play the left aspect. (Our view: no.) Boston most likely ought to simply exchange Xander Bogaerts with Carlos Correa or Dansby Swanson, although it appears unlikely given the confounding path of the group during the last yr. But Story at brief with incumbents Christian Arroyo and Enrique Hernández at second appears an amazing downgrade, and leaving Story at second with out a big-ticket shortstop means the choices are restricted. This would possibly imply second-tier veterans like Elvis Andrus or, maybe, José Iglesias, who has had two earlier stints with the workforce, together with a briefly red-hot run late in 2021.
Potential fixes: Sign Iglesias; commerce for Amed Rosario, Nick Ahmed or Paul deJong
Your mileage on the Orioles as a contender might range, but it surely’s clear they took an enormous step ahead in 2022, and the trail is obvious to complement the continued pipeline of younger expertise with an enormous transfer proper now. The most blatant spot to try this is within the rotation, which wasn’t terribly robust final yr at the same time as the remainder of the workforce bought higher, and no, signing Kyle Gibson doesn’t rely. They know this, in fact, and there are a number of alternative ways to go about this. It’s under no circumstances too quickly to present an enormous contract to a high ace like Carlos Rodón – keep in mind that the Cubs did precisely that after 89 losses in 2014, including Jon Lester – however there’s a possible argument to unfold depth round within the types of Chris Bassitt, or Nathan Eovaldi or Michael Wacha. It’s bought to be somebody, although. Maybe a number of someones, because the roster presently has few high-salary names.
Potential fixes: Don’t overthink this, simply signal Rodón
Braves LF (projected: thirtieth)
The Braves could be busy worrying about its shortstop state of affairs with Swanson nonetheless unsigned, however, as appears to be true annually, there’s a left subject drawback. They do appear to resolve that every time by selecting a veteran out of a hat and watching him carry out, however proper now, the depth chart reads Marcell Ozuna (who can’t actually subject or throw and has an 84 OPS+ during the last two years) and Eddie Rosario (who isn’t a powerful fielder and had a 64 OPS+ in 2022). Maybe they’ll simply deliver again Adam Duvall, or hope Rosario is more healthy, or promote the subsequent A-ball participant you’ve by no means heard of. But happily for them, there are many veteran nook outfielders obtainable on short-term offers.
Potential fixes: Sign Michael Conforto or Andrew McCutchen
The Cardinals are in a considerably totally different state of affairs than Baltimore, as a result of they really have a ton of depth; you might argue that there are seven totally different starters that you simply’d really feel comfy with right here, although many have harm issues. But what they don’t have is an ace, or somebody who can actually miss bats, as a result of final season, St. Louis starters had a mere 18.3% strikeout charge, seventh-weakest, and principally surrounded by non-contenders. That contact-heavy strategy labored considerably because of the workforce’s yearly robust protection, and considerably because of the death-to-hitters ballpark they name residence. Rodón can be preferrred, although the five-year take care of Willson Contreras might put an finish to that thought.
Potential fixes: Sign Rodón, however they received’t, so there may not be an incredible answer for the strikeout want. Nathan Eovaldi would no less than add some velocity.
Copy-and-paste the complete Cardinals part. Minnesota does have higher depth than you assume, particularly with Kenta Maeda anticipated to return from Tommy John surgical procedure at or close to the beginning of the season. But the Twins don’t have anybody who resembles a No. 1 – or perhaps even a No. 2 – in a postseason rotation, and a number of other of their veteran starters attain free company after 2023 anyway, diminishing that depth. Rodón is the one one who approaches that tier, however that doesn’t imply there’s not room for enchancment if and when he goes elsewhere.
Potential fixes: Sign Rodón, commerce for Pablo López, signal Chris Bassitt
Dodgers SS (projected: fifteenth)
Trick query! Unlike different spots on this checklist, fifteenth isn’t terribly poor. But it’s additionally laborious to see, in actuality, the Dodgers changing Trea Turner with Gavin Lux, partially as a result of Lux’s arm power is unimpressive even simply within the context of second basemen. There’s additionally the secondary impact right here that Dodgers second basemen venture at simply seventeenth, an issue that might simply be rectified should you transfer Lux again over to the keystone. The Dodgers yearly run one of many highest payrolls within the sport, so it’s considerably unfair to have a look at their inactivity this winter with out noting that they did go get Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts lately, but additionally they’ve performed little or no this winter. Turning the subsequent Shelby Millers into the subsequent Evan Phillipses solely goes to this point, so many occasions.
Potential fixes: Sign Correa. It’ll annoy a portion of the fanbase. They’ll recover from it. (Or commerce for Amed Rosario.)
Phillies CF (projected: Twenty seventh) or RF (projected: twenty sixth)
This one will get trickier than it must be. The projections see that Brandon Marsh has a mere 88 OPS+ in his profession, however we notice that he’s fielder who received’t even flip 25 till later this month and confirmed appreciable enchancment with the bat after being traded, and we predict extra extremely of him, although perhaps as a platoon bat. (See: we’re not at all times blindly following the numbers.) But with Bryce Harper out for the primary half of 2023, Nick Castellanos would possibly spend extra time at DH – not that he had a profitable Philadelphia debut anyway. They would possibly simply keep inside, and provides a while to Dalton Guthrie or Matt Vierling or Darick Hall (as a DH). But there’s an argument, anyway, to discover a very slim form of talent set, a right-handed bat who can pretend the brief aspect of a CF platoon with Marsh, whereas having the ability to spend a while within the corners when Kyle Schwarber or Castellanos DH.
Potential fixes: Sign AJ Pollock? Is that thrilling? Maybe simply stand pat right here and see the way it performs out internally.
Are the Rangers contenders? We’re not completely satisfied, however given all the large strikes they’ve made during the last 14 months, they actually want to be, and so they qualify by our cutoff right here. It received’t occur with an outfield that had the third-weakest offense within the recreation in 2022 and hasn’t made any enhancements but, although there are some attention-grabbing younger gamers you would possibly anticipate to take a step ahead. Even in the event that they do, they cannot do it alone.
Potential fixes: Sign Andrew Benintendi or Conforto; deliver again Joey Gallo; commerce for Max Kepler
Like the Rangers, we’re not satisfied the Marlins are within the race in 2023, however they’ve the beginning pitching to be, if they’ll simply add a bat … or two … or three. (They reportedly tried for Josh Bell and Cody Bellinger however got here up brief.) They’ll stick to Jazz Chisholm Jr. at second base. They’re most likely not going to unseat Jacob Stallings at catcher. Otherwise? There’s not a single lineup spot that must be thought of settled, apart from that they’ll give Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García possibilities someplace to get well from disappointing Miami debuts.
Potential fixes: Don’t commerce pitching for bats, as a result of the pitching is robust, however not deep. Sign all of the rebound veterans you’ll be able to. Luke Voit. Gallo. Dom Smith. J.D. Martinez. Trey Mancini. Conforto, should you can.
