What’s behind Blue Jays’ hitting-by-committee woes at 2B?

Baseball

Published 23.04.2023

What’s behind Blue Jays’ hitting-by-committee woes at 2B?

TORONTO – The Toronto Blue Jays entered the 2023 season as a staff projected to have its share of strengths, however second base by no means regarded like it might be certainly one of them.

Whit Merrifield, Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal deliver worth in their very own methods, however all three are complementary gamers finest suited to hitting at or close to the underside of the lineup. None of them have ever been seen as main drivers of Toronto’s offensive success.

Despite their lack of star energy, the expectation coming into the yr was that by mixing and matching the trio, the Blue Jays would be capable to extract strong, if unspectacular, manufacturing from the keystone.

So far that hasn’t been the case because the Blue Jays’ trio of second baseman haven’t precisely exploded out of the gate. Through 19 video games, the staff is getting a .164/.240/.194 line from the place – good for a 26 wRC+.

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It’s too early to panic about that manufacturing, however it’s price taking a better have a look at every of the gamers to see the place the Blue Jays stand on the place.

Whit Merrifield

Merrifield has been the perfect of the bunch, particularly recently, however he’s taken fairly a number of at-bats within the outfield, which has prevented him from establishing himself because the on a regular basis second baseman.

Whether that will be factor for the Blue Jays is up for debate, anyway. As strong as Merrifield has been in latest video games, he nonetheless initiatives because the weakest offensive producer of those three. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection system predicts a rest-of-season wRC+ for him (95) beneath Biggio’s (104) and Espinal’s (96).

His work has been typical of what we’ve seen from him late in latest seasons. Merrifield is placing the ball in play loads, however with a low stroll fee (5.3%) and minimal energy (.078) that make his sterling .314 batting common surprisingly empty.

That’s unlikely to alter any time quickly, because the veteran’s exit velocity and make contact with high quality numbers sit on the backside of the MLB leaderboards.

Not solely is Merrifield unlikely to expertise an influence surge, his numbers will in all probability come again to earth contemplating the .282 xwOBA he’s producing — the worst mark of his profession.

Merrifield ought to be capable to present a ground on what the Blue Jays get out of the second base place offensively. He’s unlikely to generate league-average manufacturing, however he makes sufficient contact and runs properly sufficient that his numbers are unlikely to fall off a cliff.

Cavan Biggio

Biggio has extra offensive upside than both Merrifield or Espinal — no less than towards right-handed pitching — however his mixture of excessive strikeout charges and middling contact high quality imply that when the wheels fall off, issues get ugly.

In order to make his profile work on the plate, he must take loads of walks and yank the odd dwelling run down the right-field line. So far in 2023, neither of these issues are occurring sufficient to maintain him afloat.

The good news for Biggio is that he’s skilled related slumps to the one he’s going by now, however he additionally ended 2022 with the worst 11-game stretch of his profession:

It’s been some time because the 28-year-old regarded good on the dish, and his early-season struggles are well-earned as his xwOBA (.228) nearly precisely matches his precise wOBA (.230).

His strikeout fee (33.3%) is the scariest a part of his early-season statistical profile. Like along with his total manufacturing, we’ve seen related stretches from him, however he ended 2022 on a grim observe.

You’d need to be fairly bullish on Biggio to suppose he’ll reside as much as his above-average projections from right here, contemplating he’s hit .152/.271/.261 since September.

Santiago Espinal

On first look, Espinal’s numbers look extraordinarily unbelievable, as he’s hitting simply .114/.162/.200 regardless of his wonderful strikeout fee (10.8%).

The 28-year-old has put 30 balls into play and has simply three hits to point out for it, which looks as if an absurd statistical anomaly. Although the infielder has by no means been identified to hit the ball onerous, a BABIP of .100 would appear to point an absurd stage of dangerous luck.

Although that’s the case to some extent, the balls coming off Espinal’s bat merely aren’t harmful. His xBA (.145) ranks lifeless final amongst 286 gamers with no less than 25 balls in play, and it’s solely a contact above his actual quantity.

When Espinal is at his finest, he sprays tender liners across the diamond in entrance of opposing outfielders. This season, he’s been pounding the ball into the grime as a substitute.

There’s motive to imagine that this can be a funk he can shake out of, although, as he’s had a number of related stretches scuffling with floor balls previously.

As lengthy as Espinal continues to place balls in play at an elite fee, he’s a menace to go on a heater the place hits fall in for him at an unusually excessive clip. His numbers are ugly, however this appears to be like extra like a short lived hunch than one thing basically fallacious along with his strategy.

Believing that this trio may produce palatable outcomes if rotated to hunt beneficial matchups was a defensible perspective coming into the season. That hasn’t been the case but — and it appears to be like much less and fewer like it is going to be.

Although the trio the Blue Jays have in-house is nearly certain to enhance from their brutal begin to the season, if the staff is hoping for offensive manufacturing from the keystone that’s common or higher, they possible have to look elsewhere.