Will these sluggers join the 500-HR club?
Last Saturday, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado drilled his three hundredth profession dwelling run, changing into the eighth energetic participant to achieve that quantity. That obtained us questioning whether or not Arenado, or every other energetic participant, will bash his strategy to a good grander milestone.
Only 28 sluggers have joined the 500 dwelling run membership, and when Miguel Cabrera follows Albert Pujols into retirement after this season, there’ll probably be zero energetic gamers on the checklist. (That’s barring an infinite surge from 42-year-old Nelson Cruz, whose 461 large flies, together with simply 10 final season, makes him the one contender presently inside shouting distance).
So which present energy threats are almost definitely to launch dwelling run No. 500 sometime? To reply that query, we had 11 MLB.com writers conduct a draft, making an allowance for not solely proximity to 500, but additionally age and profession trajectory.
Keep in thoughts, an early begin is essential. Of the 28 members of this esteemed membership, all however 4 hit their first homer of their age-21 season or earlier, and all however two reached the 100-homer mark by their age-26 marketing campaign.
Here are the outcomes. (Players listed with 2023 seasonal age.)
Why he might do it: Trout’s path to 500 dwelling runs is comparatively easy. He’s already hit 353 dwelling runs, the fourth-most amongst energetic gamers. He’s solely in his early-30s and is on a assured contract by means of 2030. Perhaps most significantly, Trout is hitting for extra energy as he ages. Through his age-24 season in 2016, he homered as soon as each 21.2 plate appearances. Since then, he’s homered as soon as each 14.4 plate appearances. Despite accidents which have restricted him to 109 video games per full season since 2017, he has nonetheless slugged 185 dwelling runs throughout that span, the fifth most within the Majors.
Why he might do it: There’s a ton working in Soto’s favor right here. He debuted as a 19-year-old, so he has time on his facet. His 125 homers earlier than turning 24 ranked seventh all-time, and that’s with a shortened 2020 season working towards everybody, cumulative stats-wise. His plate self-discipline is known, however when he does swing, the ability is unleashed. Consider this: 111 batters have swung a minimum of 2,250 occasions for the reason that begin of 2020 coming into Wednesday. In that span, solely three batters have had a better share of their swings lead to dwelling runs than Soto’s 3.1%: Aaron Judge (4.3%), Kyle Schwarber (3.7%) and Pete Alonso (3.4%).
Why he might do it: There are three major causes Arenado might attain the 500-homer mark: sturdiness, work ethic and consistency. Arenado hates taking even wanted days off, and he’s not often been injured all through his decade-long Major League profession. The seven-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove Award winner can be as intense a participant as you’ll discover, particularly relating to placing within the work it takes to maintain himself taking part in at an elite stage. He has stated he desires to play till he’s 38, that means he’s obtained seven seasons to hit 199 extra homers. That appears doable, provided that he has exceeded 30 homers in each season he’s performed in additional than 133 video games.
Why he might do it: While he’s the oldest participant on this checklist at 33, Stanton can be the closest to 500 of any energetic participant not named Nelson Cruz. The veteran sits 119 dwelling runs shy of 500 with 5 years left on his 13-year, $325 million contract — a mean of round 25 homers per season in that span would put him north of the five hundred mark. Even contemplating Stanton’s age and harm historical past, that appears doable for a participant who stays one of the vital highly effective hitters within the sport.
Why he might do it: The case for Harper is easy. First, he’s (one way or the other) simply now coming into his age-30 season (or can be as soon as he returns from Tommy John surgical procedure, probably someday across the All-Star break.). Second, he’s set an absurd tempo so far, with a 162-game common of 33 dwelling runs. Third, he’s below contract till 2031, giving him a attainable eight extra full seasons to knock out the ultimate 215. That works out to simply below 27 dwelling runs per season. To be sincere, it may be extra shocking if he doesn’t make it to 500.
Why he might do it: If Soto’s on this checklist, Vlad Jr. needs to be right here. These two can be in a race to 500. Vladdy will get there first. He has the top-of-the-scale energy that even Soto does not possess. Vlad Jr. reached the 100-homer mark at 23 years, 182 days previous, and his 80 homers over the previous two seasons are simply the beginning. He can hit 30 a 12 months in his sleep, and he is obtained some 40s in him … possibly even 50. Vlad Jr. goes to fly previous his dad (449 homers) and change into the primary Guerrero within the 500-home-run membership.
Why he might do it: Pete Alonso earned a hefty quantity of consideration right here, however Acuña – three years Alonso’s junior — is the safer selection. Despite the shortened 2020 season and lacking half of the ‘21 campaign due to a right knee injury, Acuña is one of only 27 players in the Modern Era to record at least 120 homers prior to his age-25 season. His 2022 homer total (15) left something to be desired, but there was and continues to be nothing wrong with Acuña’s bat; he constantly ranks among the many league leaders in max exit velocity whereas posting robust barrel charges. Fully wholesome and with a lot of baseball in entrance of him, set a reminder for Acuña’s Five hundredth-homer celebration for some level throughout the 2034 season.
Why he might do it: You could also be shocked to see that Machado, who is simply three months older than Harper and debuted within the Majors three months after him, is nearly tied with the two-time NL MVP on the profession homer checklist. After all, we don’t essentially consider Machado as a dwelling run hitter. Aside from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he’s by no means completed greater than ninth in both the AL or NL in that class. Sometimes, although, sluggish and regular wins the race. Machado stays on the sphere (second in video games performed since 2015), and he’s remarkably constant (28-37 homers in every full season over that span). With no indicators of slowing down, Machado simply inked an extension to maintain him in San Diego by means of 2033, which additionally offers him the good thing about time. He’s a steal on this spot.
Why he might do it: Because he’s 25 and may be the perfect hitter within the sport proper this very second. If that seems like a sizzling take, notice that since he got here up in 2019, he’s been outperformed on the plate by solely Mike Trout and Aaron Judge, and he’s hit a house run as soon as each 3.8 video games. Last 12 months, have you learnt who turned swings into hard-hit balls probably the most usually of any hitter? It wasn’t Judge. It wasn’t Trout. It was Alvarez, 5 years youthful than every, who’s already 20% of the way in which there, with doubtlessly one other dozen years of nice hitting forward of him.
Why he might do it: Alonso didn’t get the pinnacle begin that former wunderkinds comparable to Harper, Trout and Soto did; his MLB debut didn’t come till age 24 in 2019. But if his profession up to now has been any indication, he’s greater than geared up to make up for the misplaced time. In Alonso’s three non-pandemic-shortened seasons, he has averaged 43.3 dwelling runs per 12 months. Perhaps equally essential for this train, he has by no means missed greater than 10 video games in a season. Let’s assume a large energy discount as Alonso ages: Even if he averaged 35 dwelling runs per season for the rest of his profession, he would want to play solely 10 extra seasons to achieve the five hundred mark, which is an affordable ask for the primary baseman who doesn’t flip 29 till December.
Why he might do it: Wait, this man remains to be out there to be picked? Like, the reigning dwelling run champion coming off an AL-record 62 dingers? Sure, he’s slightly on the older facet in his age-31 season this 12 months, however Judge is nearly midway to 500. Considering that he’s able to placing up 50-plus homers in any given 12 months and averages 49 per 162 video games in his profession, Judge actually simply wants to remain wholesome sufficient over the subsequent 5 – 6 seasons to place himself on the verge. With his pure measurement, energy and energy, Judge’s capability to hit the ball onerous, far and out ought to maintain up properly into his late 30s. Plus, now that he’s staying with the Yankees for the lengthy haul, he’ll be capable to take full benefit of his homer-friendly dwelling ballpark.
