Breakouts wanted: which Blue Jays could take big steps forward in 2023?

Baseball

Published 23.03.2023

Breakouts wanted: which Blue Jays could take big steps forward in 2023?

DUNEDIN, Fla. – Think again to final October, and the way baseball’s greatest groups superior to the post-season. They had superstars, in fact, gamers like Aaron Judge, Justin Verlander and Mookie Betts.

But past these established veterans, breakout gamers additionally emerged as key contributors for MLB’s greatest groups in 2022. A 12 months in the past, it will have been unreasonable to depend on a lot from the gamers beneath, however these overachievers helped propel their respective groups to first-round byes:

Yankees, 99 wins, AL East title

Nestor Cortes (4.2 WAR), Matt Carpenter (2.4 WAR), Jose Trevino (2.3 WAR) and Oswaldo Cabrera (2.0 WAR)

Astros, 106 wins, AL West title

Jeremy Peña (4.9 WAR), Cristian Javier (3.7 WAR) and Ryne Stanek (2.2 WAR)

Atlanta, 101 wins, NL East title

Michael Harris II (5.3 WAR) and Spencer Strider (3.7 WAR)

Dodgers, 111 wins, NL West title

Tony Gonsolin (4.6 WAR), Tyler Anderson (4.3 WAR), Evan Phillips (2.8 WAR), Gavin Lux (2.5 WAR) and Trayce Thompson (2.0 WAR)

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To be honest, a few of these groups would have reached the playoffs even with out shock breakouts. For occasion, the Mets gained 101 video games thanks largely to their established stars.

But surpassing expectations actually turns into simpler when a participant or two overachieves. As Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker says, “you need that to happen in a championship year.” The query now, is which groups will profit from these shock contributions?

In Blue Jays camp there’s optimism that some unheralded gamers will be a part of stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette within the group’s push for its first division title since 2015.

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In 2022, they loved breakouts from Ross Stripling and Santiago Espinal. A 12 months later, who’s subsequent? Yusei Kikuchi’s the apparent identify, however $36 million gamers don’t actually matter as breakouts. With apologies to two-time all-stars like Whit Merrifield and Jose Berrios, they’re not true breakout candidates both. Still, many others have the potential to emerge as impression contributors who generate 2.0 WAR just like the gamers above.

Conversations with gamers, coaches and executives in Blue Jays camp have helped determine these 5 gamers as breakout candidates in 2023…

The sinker specialist: Zach Pop

Now in competitors for the ultimate spot within the bullpen, Zach Pop has a sinker-slider mixture that has the potential to push him up the Blue Jays’ depth chart. The 26-year-old has elite velocity with a fastball that averaged 96.5 m.p.h. final 12 months – higher than 88 per cent of fellow big-leaguers.

He throws the sinker greater than three-quarters of the time, pairing it with a slider that retains opposing hitters from sitting fastball too comfortably.

“He’s an underrated arm right now,” Walker stated. “He’s someone that could step up, with his kind of stuff and have like a Clay Holmes type of year. He is potentially that kind of guy. The fact that he’s now throwing his sinker to both sides of the plate and not just one side as evidenced (Wednesday). When he starts getting left handers out routinely he’s an elite reliever and not just a right-on-right guy.”

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That Holmes comp can be splendid for the Blue Jays. An all-star final 12 months, Holmes posted a 2.54 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Best-case situation, Pop approaches these numbers in Toronto.

The versatile on-base risk: Cavan Biggio

Ask GM Ross Atkins about potential breakouts and it doesn’t take lengthy earlier than Biggio’s identify comes up. The left-handed hitting 27-year-old fell off offensively in 2021 and 2022, however the ZiPS projection system nonetheless forecasts an above-average wRC+ of 108 for him in 2023.

Then there are the opposite features to Biggio’s recreation – the defensive versatility to play first base, second base and proper discipline and the baserunning instincts which have allowed him to steal 25 bases in 26 profession makes an attempt.

“Speed and baseball IQ is a good combo,” supervisor John Schneider stated earlier this spring. “There’s power, there’s on base, there’s great defence, there’s great baserunning. He brings it all.”

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There aren’t any ensures right here. We’ve seen the draw back. But the Blue Jays are prone to leverage Biggio’s profession .749 OPS towards right-handed pitching to seek out beneficial matchups this coming season. Combined with improved well being, that might be a recipe for a sneaky two- or three-win season.

The contact hitter: Otto Lopez

Playing for Canada on the World Baseball Classic, Lopez impressed in some high-pressure spots, flashing a bit of energy in addition to the bat-to-ball expertise he’s recognized greatest for. Combine that displaying along with his 2022 season (he hit .297/.378/.415 in 91 triple-A video games final 12 months) and the best way Lopez carried out within the Grapefruit League and he appears to be like increasingly like somebody who can maintain his personal towards high-level pitching.

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A number one candidate to earn the ultimate spot on the Blue Jays’ bench (Nathan Lukes and Vinny Capra are the others), Lopez wouldn’t possible begin a lot at first. But it’s a protracted season – alternative typically emerges for individuals who earn it.

Ideally, the Blue Jays don’t want Lopez a lot as a result of their starters are all producing. But there’s worth in having somebody who can put the bat on the ball, pinch-run and play nearly anyplace.

The depth starter: Zach Thompson

While it’s conceivable the Blue Jays won’t want a bench bat like Lopez, there’s nearly no world during which Thompson doesn’t get probabilities to begin in 2023. In truth, he could be the primary layer of depth past the present rotation at a time that Mitch White’s nonetheless catching as much as his teammates.

“He’s someone that’s certainly going to contribute this year, and he could end up contributing in a big way,” Walker stated. “He is aware of methods to pitch.”

Granted, it’s an enormous ask. Thompson’s a waiver declare from the Pirates, not a serious free-agent acquisition, and there’s not a lot in the best way of certainty right here. But it is a checklist of potential surprises and the Blue Jays have been working behind the scenes with the right-hander on some changes they’re hoping can pay dividends.

At the Letters

Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior author. Together, they convey you essentially the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast within the league, protecting off all the newest news with opinion and evaluation, in addition to interviews with different insiders and group members.

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According to Walker, a few of the identical changes that labored for Stripling could find yourself benefitting Thompson, too.

The high-velo gamble: Nate Pearson

Injuries have robbed Pearson of priceless probabilities to pitch in recent times, so he now not appears to be like just like the organizational constructing block he as soon as did. Regardless, he can nonetheless gentle up a radar gun with a fastball that approaches 100 m.p.h.

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At this stage, he seems prone to open the season as a reliever at triple-A, but when he’s throwing constant strikes along with his fastball and slider, chances are high good that he’ll have the ability to drive his approach onto the Blue Jays’ roster earlier than lengthy.

As with all gamers on this checklist, there’s the potential the season doesn’t go as deliberate for Pearson. But the upside right here stays vital – he might be a high-leverage reliever getting massive outs late within the 12 months. So whereas it’s not honest to depend on Pearson after a 12 months during which he didn’t seem within the majors, ruling him out can be silly, too.

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