The likeliest award winner from every team
In each the most effective and worst of group seasons, a person can shine by. You don’t must be a World Series contender to have a serious award winner, so we’ve taken up this annual train to attempt to decide the member of every group who’s more than likely to take residence Baseball Writers’ Association of America {hardware} – be it the MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year award.
Here are this yr’s picks, a few of which had been fairly darn tough.
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, MVP
Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman acquired Cy Young help final season (Manoah completed third, Gausman ninth). Either man may win it this yr, however Guerrero is perennially the choose right here. Even in a down 2022, he completed sixteenth within the vote (after a runner-up end in ’21) and his hard-hit metrics point out he had some poor batted-ball luck. This loaded and extra balanced lineup (during which Bo Bichette may be one other MVP candidate) ought to afford Guerrero loads of alternative to drive in runs. Guerrero’s Spring Training knee subject doesn’t look like a serious concern.
Orioles: Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Rookie of the Year
The 21-year-old Henderson — the No. 1 prospect in all of MLB, per MLB Pipeline — might be among the many favorites to win this AL honor after hitting 4 homers, seven doubles and a triple in his first 132 plate appearances final yr. He maintains his rookie eligibility however may have competitors with teammate and right-hander Grayson Rodriguez.
Rays: Wander Franco, SS, MVP
Shane McClanahan’s Cy Young bid may be the higher choose right here. He was firmly within the combine for that honor final yr earlier than coping with a shoulder impingement late within the season. But something involving the shoulder and pitchers provides us pause. While Franco has had damage problems with his personal, he’s demonstrated that he can hit the ball arduous with consistency whereas not placing out. Franco’s upside, due to this fact, is immense and he figures to be the most effective participant on a superb group.
Red Sox: Triston Casas, 1B, Rookie of the Year
We’re definitely not ruling out a Rafael Devers MVP bid, however when one of many prime prospects in MLB (Casas ranks twenty third, per MLB Pipeline) appears destined for an on a regular basis job, that’s a safer choice right here. Casas’ left-handed energy ought to play up at Fenway Park, although 29-year-old teammate Masataka Yoshida may additionally vie for this honor in his first season within the United States.
Yankees: Aaron Judge, RF, MVP
We haven’t had a back-to-back MVP in both league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012-13, and the percentages of Judge repeating his 62-homer output are slim as a pinstripe. If Gerrit Cole can corral his home-run charge, he’s an annual Cy Young menace, and Anthony Volpe may be a Rookie of the Year candidate.
Guardians: José Ramírez, 3B, MVP
It’s a tricky name right here between Ramírez for MVP or Shane Bieber for Cy Young. However, Ramírez completed fourth within the MVP voting final season regardless of taking part in half the yr with just one hand (not actually) and he’s been a finalist for the respect 3 times.
Royals: Drew Waters, OF, Rookie of the Year
Labeling Bobby Witt Jr. an MVP candidate appears untimely, and the Royals aren’t replete with apparent decisions for this dialogue. But though the 24-year-old Waters is presently sidelined with an indirect damage, there must be sufficient at-bats for him this season to point out what he can do on the huge league stage. Last yr, he had an .803 OPS in 108 plate appearances.
Tigers: Ryan Kreidler, UTIL, Rookie of the Year
A yr in the past, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene appeared like apparent Rookie of the Year candidates for the Tigers, till struggles and damage intervened. This yr, the Tigers don’t have front-line prospects coming to the floor, however they do have a couple of younger gamers who ought to have the chance to make an impression. Kreidler, a pure shortstop who will play all around the area, is one such instance. He’s additionally the son of a baseball author, so profitable a Baseball Writers’ honor can be becoming.
Twins: Carlos Correa, SS, MVP
After the endless free agent saga that lastly ended with Correa proper again the place he began, what a narrative this is able to be. Correa has gotten down-ballot votes for MVP 3 times in his profession, by no means ending greater than fifth (2021).
White Sox: Oscar Colas, OF, Rookie of the Year
There’s a ton of expertise on this group, however, given the way in which 2022 performed out, we’re going to want to see extra earlier than we leap again on, say, the Luis Robert MVP hype practice. Instead, we’ll take the safer route with a rookie who should have a ton of alternative within the lineup. Colas has a superb really feel for hitting and above-average energy.
Angels: Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH, MVP
Mike Trout’s struggles to remain on the sphere and Ohtani’s otherworldly output have drowned out a once-fun debate over which Angels star is the extra possible MVP. Right now, the one purpose to not record Ohtani is the likelihood that he will get dealt midseason in his stroll yr. If he had been to alter leagues, that may possible kill his MVP probabilities. But anyway, we’ll take our probabilities with him right here.
Astros: Kyle Tucker, OF, MVP
The greatest group in baseball affords choices aplenty, be it potential Cy Young candidates in Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, MVP-caliber skills like Yordan Álvarez and Alex Bregman (perhaps even Jeremy Peña if he can deal with your entire season like he did October 2022) and a possible Rookie of the Year in Hunter Brown. The 26-year-old Tucker has confirmed to be probably the most well-rounded gamers within the recreation, and an .860 OPS and 11 whole bWAR during the last two seasons is simply scratching the floor of his potential.
A’s: Shintaro Fujinami , RHP, Rookie of the Year
The A’s prime three prospects — catcher/first baseman Tyler Soderstrom, left-hander Ken Waldichuk and infielder Zack Gelof — may all impression the roster this yr. But we’ll single out the 28-year-old Fujinami solely as a result of we all know he’ll have an ample variety of beginning alternatives after pitching almost 1,000 innings in Japan.
Mariners: Julio Rodríguez , OF, MVP
The near-unanimous Rookie of the Year in 2022 seemingly has an MVP in his future sooner or later. Why not now? Rodríguez slashed .284/.345/.509 in his first 560 huge league plate appearances whereas propelling the Mariners to their first playoff berth in a era and ending seventh within the MVP vote.
Rangers: Jacob deGrom, RHP, Cy Young
If the shift ban is as pleasant to Corey Seager as some suspect, maybe he’ll be at an MVP caliber. But deGrom, even with that iffy damage historical past, is the safer guess for some {hardware}. The two-time Cy winner is now in a league the place the early outlook for the Cy race seems fairly huge open, with unanimous 2022 AL winner Justin Verlander having moved to the NL.
Braves: Ronald Acuña Jr., OF, MVP
On final yr’s record, we had been presumptuous in assuming Acuña may instantly return to an MVP stage so quickly after main knee surgical procedure (and fairly frankly, we didn’t foresee Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider making as main an impression as they did in ending 1-2 within the Rookie of the Year vote). But after a standard offseason, the electrical Acuña is likely one of the odds-on favorites for this award in 2023.
Marlins: Sandy Alcantara, RHP, Cy Young
Only 11 hurlers in historical past have managed to win the Cy Young in consecutive seasons. It’s asking an terrible lot of Alcantara to hitch that specific record. But he’s a uncommon workhorse within the fashionable recreation, and he’s nonetheless the most effective awards guess on this Marlins roster, until, maybe, Eury Pérez will get sufficient innings to vie for the Rookie of the Year or Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a sudden MVP-level breakout.
Mets: Justin Verlander, RHP, Cy Young
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor had been each top-10 MVP finishers final yr, and prospects Brett Baty and Francisco Álvarez may wind up vying for the Rookie of the Year. But the talk right here revolves across the prime of the rotation, the place two future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer and Verlander are each nonetheless able to Cy Young seasons. Scherzer had damage points final yr, so the reigning AL winner is our choose. (By the way in which, if Verlander had been to win it, he would be a part of Scherzer as one in every of solely seven pitchers to win it in each leagues.)
Nationals: Thad Ward, RHP, Rookie of the Year
The Nats simply don’t give us a lot to work with. Their greatest younger gamers have exceeded their rookie eligibility limits, and No. 4 prospect Cade Cavalli had a rotation alternative earlier than struggling a season-ending elbow damage. Joey Meneses certain performed like an MVP in 56 video games final season, but it surely’s arduous to anticipate that for 162 video games. Ward was the primary choose within the Rule 5 Draft and can in all probability be given each alternative to stay on the massive league pitching employees, so don’t rely him out.
Phillies: Aaron Nola, RHP, Cy Young
Trea Turner is the Phillies’ greatest MVP choose, however the voting there tends to favor guys with extra energy than Turner has supplied to date in his profession. Andrew Painter’s iffy elbow barely clouds his Rookie of the Year candidacy. Ultimately, it comes right down to Nola or Zack Wheeler within the Cy Young dialogue. Both are able to profitable one (and Wheeler in all probability ought to have in 2021), however we’ll give the pending free agent Nola the sting after he completed fourth final season.
Brewers: Corbin Burnes, RHP, Cy Young
The Brewers are beginning to graduate prime prospects like Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer to the massive leagues, so they may wind up with a Rookie of the Year. But for now, Burnes, who gained the Cy in 2021 and completed seventh final season, is the straightforward choose, with the apparent caveat that co-ace Brandon Woodruff is succesful, as nicely.
Cardinals: Nolan Arenado, 3B, MVP
The Cards have the reigning MVP in Paul Goldschmidt, however the 35-year-old Goldy was the oldest MVP of the steroid-testing period. Arenado is coming into his age-32 season, completed third final yr and has three different top-five finishes in his profession. He’s the safer choice at MVP. But is he the most secure award selection on this group? It may be Jordan Walker for Rookie of the Year, as he’s appeared this spring like a star within the making. But Walker must earn his at-bats, and, anyway, MVP is cooler. So, Arenado it’s.
Cubs: Hayden Wesneski RHP, Rookie of the Year
The greatest Cubs award guess may be on Cody Bellinger for Comeback Player of the Year. But as a result of we’re centered right here solely on the BBWAA honors, we’ll do as we’ve with different golf equipment on this record that don’t have apparent MVP (that may be an enormous leap for Dansby Swanson) or Cy Young candidates and go together with a rookie who has a transparent avenue to an everyday position. That’s Wesneski, the Cubs’ No. 5 prospect who appeared stable in 33 innings final yr and seems to be positioned to assert a rotation spot out of camp.
Pirates: Ji-Hwan Bae, 2B/OF, Rookie of the Year
Unless, say, Mitch Keller makes a dramatic leap into Cy Young standing, the most effective we will moderately hope for with the Pirates within the award division is for a rookie to make waves. Bae, who had 30 steals and 6 triples at Triple-A final yr, is fascinating within the new guidelines surroundings, which emphasizes pace. He’ll have an opportunity at an honest variety of at-bats in a super-utility position.
Reds: Spencer Steer, 3B, Rookie of the Year
Elly De La Cruz is the higher-ranked prospect (No. 1 within the Reds’ system, No. 10 in MLB) and will attain the bigs quickly, however he’s solely performed 47 video games above the Single-A stage. Steer, then again, seems to be the Reds’ common at third base from the outset of 2023, which implies the membership’s No. 5 prospect could have probably the most alternative to place up award-worthy numbers.
D-backs: Corbin Carroll, OF, Rookie of the Year
The Orioles’ Gunnar Henderson is the favourite for AL Rookie of the Year, and Carroll is the favourite of many for the NL honor. The D-backs have cleared the trail to his on a regular basis position and signed him to an eight-year extension, on the heels of an .830 OPS in his first 115 plate appearances. That mentioned, as we’ve mentioned elsewhere, Zac Gallen has what it takes to win the Cy Young this season.
Dodgers: Mookie Betts, OF, MVP
As typical, it is a robust name right here, as a result of Freddie Freeman can also be eminently able to one other MVP, Julio Urías can once more determine prominently within the Cy Young race and the Dodgers, who’ve had one thing like 78% of all NL Rookies of the Year in historical past (solely a slight exaggeration), might be giving alternatives to a handful of their prime 10 prospects. But, coming into his age-30 season, with top-eight finishes within the MVP race in six of the final seven seasons, Mookie is the most secure of … Betts. If he efficiently handles some second base at a time of want for L.A., that may solely add to his MVP narrative.
Giants: Logan Webb, RHP, Cy Young
The Giants’ prime prospect, left-hander Kyle Harrison, may debut this yr, but it surely’s not clear that he can be given sufficient innings to meaningfully vie for the Rookie of the Year. A Webb run on the Cy appears extra real looking. Over the final two seasons, he has a 2.96 ERA and 138 ERA+ in 340 2/3 innings. Among these with not less than 300 innings in that span, his ERA+ ranks eleventh in MLB.
Padres: Juan Soto, OF, MVP
This Padres group is loaded with stars, however contemplating Soto is just coming into his age-24 season and has already gathered 23.2 profession bWAR, it’s arduous to not like his probabilities of at some point profitable the MVP — probably very quickly. He’s coming off a wierd, power-sapped season, however maybe after a full spring with San Diego, he’ll be able to settle in and put up a season extra in step with his MVP-worthy 2021.
Rockies: Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Rookie of the Year
Easy name. He’s the No. 25 prospect in MLB and because the Rockies’ on a regular basis shortstop, the Rox rook with the clearest breakout potential in 2023. With a scarcity of apparent alternate options for the place, Colorado will give Tovar each alternative to determine it out and stick on the place.
