What the Blue Jays’ Berrios can (and can’t) take away from tough WBC start

Baseball

Published 20.03.2023

What the Blue Jays’ Berrios can (and can’t) take away from tough WBC start

LAKELAND, Fla. — Start with this: if Jose Berrios’ blow-up final week on the World Baseball Classic had occurred on the identical time of yr, solely with him sporting Toronto Blue Jays colors and pitching in a meaningless Grapefruit League recreation earlier than a couple of thousand at some minor-league ballpark, it wouldn’t have precipitated a stir.

Good pitchers get rocked loads in spring coaching. The different day, Royals pitcher Zack Greinke implied he was purposefully permitting baserunners so he might work on pickoffs. It’s by no means smart to over-react.

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But we should acknowledge that as he was permitting six runs (5 earned) on 5 hits and two walks over one-plus inning of labor, Berrios was sporting Puerto Rican colors and pitching in a significant recreation earlier than over 35,000 on the closest factor his sport has to a World Cup.

That’s a distinct proposition. Berrios wasn’t on the mound to tinker mechanically or work on a pitch. He was making an attempt to effectively retire batters. And it couldn’t have gone a lot worse.

“Spring training, we use to work — to improve our skills. But in that game, we had to forget about working on whatever we want to work on. You go out there and pitch and compete,” Berrios mentioned Monday, again at Blue Jays camp after Puerto Rico was eradicated within the quarterfinals. “We tried. Obviously, [Venezuela] did better than me.”

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Berrios confronted 11 Venezuelan hitters final Sunday, permitting eight of them to achieve. He wasn’t helped by the throwing error his brother-in-law, Javy Baez, dedicated on a routine groundball to start the sport. But he additionally wasn’t helped by falling behind 5 of these 11 hitters and leaving four-seam fastballs in very hittable places.

What was true on the finish of 2022, when Berrios led all American League pitchers in hits and runs allowed, stays true right this moment: Berrios’ fastball command wants to enhance. Two of the 5 hits he allowed got here off four-seam fastballs he threw up and over the plate in opposition to left-handed hitters. That’s not the place Berrios must reside when going through the facet of the platoon that hit .381 with a .752 slugging share in opposition to his four-seamer final season.

To be truthful, not all of Berrios’ four-seamers to lefties had been poorly positioned. He hit the perimeters of the zone with a couple of. But margins are skinny at this degree. Big-league hitters are tremendously expert. And whenever you have a look at all 10 of the four-seamers Berrios threw lefties that night time, it’s clear why he paid for the 2 that he missed with — and evident that he received away with one other:

Another factor that emerges whenever you look nearer at Berrios’ WBC outing is the way in which he used each of his fastballs — four-seamer and two-seamer — to right-handed hitters. Working with Minnesota Twins catcher Christian Vazquez, Berrios peppered the within fringe of the plate over 80 per cent of the time:

Those aren’t the lanes the Blue Jays need Berrios working in with fastballs in opposition to same-sided hitters. At least not so persistently. They’ve inspired him to work away from right-handers extra usually, which may arrange his curveball to generate whiffs from these glove-side tunnels. Or his changeup, to do the identical when he does find arm-side. If Berrios lives solely on one facet of the plate, hitters will zone in on it.

Here are all of the fastballs Berrios threw right-handed hitters in his first two spring begins earlier than becoming a member of Puerto RIco. You can see him working to each side and, if something, dwelling predominantly away from righties — not in to them like he did in opposition to Venezuela:

3 fastballs vs RHB first two spring outings

“We brought a plan. We had something for the hitters. And we tried to execute our plan,” Berrios mentioned. “But I think they had a better plan than us.”

Granted, the opposite factor that’s evident from these pitch charts is Berrios persevering with to go away four-seamers in unhealthy places. That’s an apparent tendency he must appropriate. But it’s a much bigger drawback in opposition to left-handed hitters than it’s in opposition to right-handed ones. And Berrios’ four-seamers to lefties in these early-spring outings had been not less than higher positioned than those he threw Venezuela, whereas his sinkers to them throughout his first had been in nice spots:

4 fastballs vs LHB first two spring outings

So, it was odd to see Berrios immediately working solely inside to right-handers with Puerto Rico when he’d been engaged on doing something however with the Blue Jays. But it wasn’t as odd as this pitch to Anthony Santander:

That’s an 0-0 curveball down within the zone to a left-handed hitter. And Santander crushed it. To say Blue Jays’ pitching coaches could be furious if that pitch was known as and thrown in a regular-season recreation is an understatement. It would fly within the face of every little thing they’d mentioned in Berrios’ pre-game technique assembly. Hours and hours of analysis and evaluation out the window.

There is a time and place for Berrios to throw first-pitch breaking balls to lefties. That time is in opposition to hitters that battle to barrel breaking pitches and that place is on the skin fringe of the plate, making an attempt to steal a back-door strike. The Blue Jays need the worst-case consequence to be a ball outdoors or weak contact off the tip of that left-hander’s bat. Not a breaking ball that bends instantly into the barrel, because the one to Santander did, permitting the hitter to activate the ball and lob it over the suitable subject fence.

You can see it within the swing Santander executed. He acknowledged spin and took his 8-iron to it. He’ll do that each time. He loves early-count breaking balls in that location. And the Blue Jays know that.

Santander made 9 plate appearances in opposition to Berrios final season, making an out in seven of them. The Orioles outfielder’s solely success got here on a groundball single and an uber-late swing that wrapped a ball round third base and into the left subject nook for a double. It’s a matchup Berrios has normally gotten the higher of, with Santander going 4-for-14 in opposition to him over the course of his profession with solely that one fluky extra-base hit.

But neglect outcomes for a second. Let’s discuss course of. Here’s how Berrios pitched Santander final season:

Fastballs up, changeups away. Nothing on the internal half. And definitely no breaking balls down within the zone, just like the one Santander took deep on the WBC. And whenever you have a look at the place Santander’s remoted energy has come in opposition to breaking pitches over the course of his profession — when batting from the left facet in opposition to right-handed pitchers like Berrios — you may see why the Blue Jays would keep away from that location:

This is a man who mashes breaking balls down within the zone from righties. Not solely breaking pitches, thoughts you. Anything down within the zone. Take Santander’s 124 extra-base hits off right-handed pitching over the course of his profession, plot them on a warmth map, and it’s very clear which space of the zone he likes to see pitches in:

If you’re a right-handed pitcher, there’s no motive to ever go there. But for one motive or one other, pitching for Puerto Rico final week, a breaking ball down within the zone was known as. And Berrios threw it. And Santander did what he does in opposition to pitches likes these.

“It was different — a little different,” Berrios mentioned when requested if the gameplan Puerto Rico charted for him differed from those he’d been utilizing this spring with the Blue Jays. “But we have to be on the same page. We did it and went out there and tried to execute the plan.”

Look, what’s executed is finished. We’ve already gone too deep into the weeds of 1 mid-March outing. If something, the Blue Jays can use Berrios’ expertise getting rocked whereas pitching the way in which he did with Puerto Rico to assist encourage extra buy-in to the assault plans they’ve been engaged on with him this spring.

And as was the case final season, when Berrios pitched to a 5.23 ERA that stood in stark distinction to the three.74 one he’d posted over the half-decade prior, high quality of stuff wasn’t a priority. Berrios’ fastball velocity has sat persistently within the 94-mph vary this spring; he even touched 96 in opposition to Venezuela. His biting sinker nonetheless has its trademark life. And his large breaking ball’s bending as a lot as ever. If the Blue Jays can merely get him to keep away from hittable areas of the zone, he ought to have the ability to recapture the constant success he loved earlier in his profession.

That’s the main focus going ahead. As is build up workload for the common season. After throwing 36 pitches in his first spring outing on February 28, and 47 in his second 5 days later, Berrios reached solely 38 in his WBC outing per week after that. But he was prudent sufficient to maintain throwing within the bullpen after being lifted, working his means as much as 68 pitches.

After throwing a 50-pitch facet session at Blue Jays camp Sunday, Berrios will return to a recreation mound Wednesday in opposition to the Baltimore Orioles and attempt to stretch out to round 75. He’ll get one other spring coaching tune-up after that, ideally working into the 85-90 vary within the days previous to Toronto’s season opener.

And then it’s go time. Berrios’ WBC expertise didn’t transpire as anybody had hoped. Not participant, not membership, not nationwide program. But you may take simply as a lot from failure as you may from success. Often extra. Back in camp with the Blue Jays, the place issues had been transferring in the suitable path earlier this spring, Berrios will attempt to show simply that.

“I’m so excited to pitch again this Wednesday and keep doing my thing, with the way I’ve been feeling so far this spring training,” Berrios mentioned. “Because last year is passed away already. We want to turn that page and take the feeling I have right now — and keep it rolling into the regular season.”