The most improved players of ’23 will be …
There are many elements that may have a hand in serving to a participant enhance from one yr to the subsequent, whether or not it’s higher well being, a brand new method, a pure development of abilities or just higher luck.
To discover out which place gamers are anticipated to enhance probably the most from 2022 to 2023, we took each participant who had at the very least 450 plate appearances final season and in contrast their 2022 WAR to their projected 2023 WAR. (Projected WAR totals are courtesy of FanGraphs Depth Charts, that are a mix of the Steamer and ZiPS projection methods, with anticipated enjoying time allotted by FanGraphs workers.)
The result’s an attention-grabbing mixture of breakout candidates, bounceback gamers and celebrity skills coming off so-so years (by their lofty requirements).
Acuña hit the bottom operating in his return from a torn ACL final April — actually. The outfielder stole two bases in his first recreation again and went on to swipe 29 over 119 video games on the yr. However, from a abilities perspective, the participant we noticed final season didn’t fairly seem like the celebrity he was earlier than his damage. He was slower, his protection wasn’t nearly as good and he hit with much less energy as his plate self-discipline regressed. Now greater than 20 months faraway from his ACL tear, the 25-year-old might discover no matter he misplaced final season and re-establish himself as a perennial MVP candidate.
2-T. Juan Soto, OF, Padres: +3 WAR
2022 WAR: 3.8 | Projected 2023 WAR: 6.8
Soto hit 27 homers and walked 135 occasions with simply 96 strikeouts over 664 plate appearances between the Nationals and Padres in 2022, however a career-low .249 batting common on balls in play dragged down his general line. For many hitters, a 145 wRC+ would have been a profession yr, however it was truly a step down for the 24-year-old after what he did the earlier two seasons (172 wRC+). Given Soto’s hitting abilities, youth and observe file, you in all probability gained’t be shocked to be taught that he’s projected for the second-most WAR behind Aaron Judge in 2023.
2-T. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox: +3 WAR
2022 WAR: -0.4 | Projected 2023 WAR: 2.6
The No. 3 general choose within the 2019 MLB Draft, Vaughn has but to have his offensive breakout, hitting .255 with a 104 wRC+ and 32 homers over his first two seasons. He was additionally the sport’s least worthwhile defender throughout 2021-22, as he was pressured to play the outfield far too typically with José Abreu occupying first base for the White Sox. But after Abreu signed with the Astros as a free agent, Vaughn might get the prospect to play first base full time in 2023, maybe resulting in some enchancment with the glove. The projections additionally see an enormous yr coming from the 24-year-old on the plate — FanGraphs Depth Charts have him placing up 26 homers and a 127 wRC+. Vaughn did produce laborious contact on 20.7% of his swings final season, tying him with Soto for the fourth-highest fee in MLB, so there’s motive to imagine he could make a leap in his third season.
4-T. Jose Miranda, 1B/3B, Twins: +2.1 WAR
2022 WAR: 1.1 | Projected 2023 WAR: 3.2
Miranda took a while to seek out his consolation zone after debuting final May, however as soon as he obtained on a roll, he was one of many AL’s greatest rookie hitters, recording a .292/.349/.458 slash with 14 homers and a 133 wRC+ in his ultimate 427 PAs. Defense was … one other story. Miranda largely break up his time between third and second within the Minors, however the Twins typically used him at first base in 2022 and he didn’t take to the place, posting -6 defensive runs saved and -4 outs above common. He completed with 1.1 WAR. So why does FanGraphs have him as a 3.2-WAR participant in 2023? For one, he’s more likely to see extra time on the scorching nook after the Twins traded Gio Urshela to the Angels, which might result in improved defensive metrics. FanGraphs Depth Charts additionally initiatives him for a 122 wRC+, which might be a step up from final yr’s mark of 117.
4-T. Jeimer Candelario, 1B/3B, Nationals: +2.1 WAR
2022 WAR: -0.1 | Projected 2023 WAR: 2
Candelario appeared like a possible constructing block for Detroit throughout 2020-21, rating third amongst MLB third basemen in WAR (5.8) behind José Ramírez and Manny Machado whereas placing up a 125 wRC+ in that span. But after he hit .217 with an 80 wRC+ over 124 video games in 2022, the rebuilding Tigers non-tendered the 29-year-old in November. Candelario landed with the Nationals on a one-year, $5 million deal, and he’ll have an opportunity to rejuvenate his profession within the nation’s capital as Washington’s possible beginning third baseman.
6-T. Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies: +2 WAR
2022 WAR: -0.7 | Projected 2023 WAR: 1.3
Castellanos was top-of-the-line hitters within the NL in 2021 (34 homers, 139 wRC+), after which he opted out of his contract with the Reds and signed a five-year, $100 million take care of the Phillies. The free-swinging slugger not solely declined throughout the board throughout his first yr in Philadelphia, he completed third-to-last amongst qualifying place gamers with -0.7 WAR. Castellanos’ projections for 2023 (109 wRC+) truly aren’t that optimistic, however 1.3 WAR would nonetheless be a 2-win bounce from final season.
6-T. Ketel Marte, 2B, D-backs: +2 WAR
2022 WAR: 1.4 | Projected 2023 WAR: 3.4
After ending fourth within the NL MVP race in 2019 (32 homers, 150 wRC+) and recording a 140 wRC+ whereas battling accidents in 2021, Marte mixed a league-average bat (102 wRC+) with subpar protection (-6 DRS, -3 OAA) at second base in 2022. The projections see an enormous bounceback coming (at the very least on offense), with FanGraphs Depth Charts forecasting 17 homers and a 122 wRC+.
8-T. MJ Melendez, C/OF, Royals: +1.9 WAR
2022 WAR: -0.2 | Projected 2023 WAR: 1.7
Although Melendez was lauded for his protection as a catching prospect, his glove work throughout his rookie season was so poor that his future as an enormous league catcher is now in query. The teen has a cannon for an arm, however he was certainly one of MLB’s worst pitch framers and ranked useless final by a large margin in Statcast’s new blocking metric. With Melendez anticipated to see extra time within the outfield than behind the plate in 2023, it’s possible his protection gained’t detract from the worth his bat supplies fairly as a lot because it did final season. Speaking of his bat, Melendez’s 99 wRC+ in 2022 was unremarkable, however along with his grasp of the strike zone and great uncooked energy, he’s a candidate to interrupt out this yr.
8-T. Jared Walsh, 1B, Angels: +1.9 WAR
2022 WAR: -0.6 | Projected 2023 WAR: 1.3
What was a feel-good story for Walsh — a former Thirty ninth-round Draft choose turned All-Star who produced 29 homers, 98 RBIs and a 126 wRC+ in 2021 — took a flip for the more serious final yr. The first baseman recorded a 78 wRC+, a bottom-10 mark amongst gamers with at the very least 450 plate appearances, earlier than present process season-ending surgical procedure for thoracic outlet syndrome in September. Now wholesome, the 29-year-old will look to show the web page and get his profession again on observe in 2023.
It’s laborious to name Guerrero’s 2022 season a letdown contemplating he swatted 32 homers over 160 video games and was 32% higher than league common on the plate (132 wRC+). That mentioned, the younger slugger did not match the excessive bar he set the earlier yr, when he produced 48 dingers and slashed .311/.401/.601 with a 166 wRC+, resulting in a second-place end within the AL MVP race. Still solely 24 years outdated, Guerrero may very well be poised to reclaim his elite standing in 2023 — FanGraphs Depth charts venture him for the sixth-highest wRC+ (154) of any hitter.
10-T. Salvador Perez, C/DH, Royals: +1.8 WAR
2022 WAR: 0.5 | Projected 2023 WAR: 2.3
Regression was at all times possible after Perez tied for the MLB lead in homers (48) and led the Majors outright with 121 RBIs in 2021, however his decline was extra dramatic than anticipated due largely to the left thumb damage he initially suffered in May and aggravated in June, resulting in surgical procedure. The veteran backstop is unlikely to method his 2021 numbers ever once more, however his efficiency after getting back from the process — he hit .297 with 12 dwelling runs and a 131 wRC+ over his ultimate 57 video games — is a supply of optimism heading into his age-33 season.
