Predicting the NL East with 10 key questions
Every yr, we preview every division main as much as the beginning of the season. Now, with lower than two weeks remaining earlier than Opening Day, it’s time to show our consideration to the National League East.
Is this essentially the most thrilling the NL East has ever been? Sure, the Nationals are rebuilding, however they’re doing it with a gaggle of potential stars. The Marlins appear to have the identical variety of questions that they often do, albeit questions they’ve tried to deal with in a extra aggressive trend than regular. But wow, that high three!
The Mets have thrown all of baseball right into a tizzy with their spending spree this offseason, including to a staff that gained 101 video games final yr. The Braves are literally the reigning division champs and have a core of younger expertise that’s the envy of all the sport. Oh, and the Phillies didn’t simply signal arguably the most effective free agent accessible this offseason in Trea Turner … they, uh, went to the World Series final yr. This is a mid-aughts AL-East-style arms race. You’ve received to find it irresistible.
So, let’s check out the NL East. Teams are listed in alphabetical order by nickname up high, with my standings prediction beneath.
1) Is Vaughn Grissom able to take over at shortstop?
The Braves have completed such an excellent job of locking down their roster by signing gamers to extensions early on of their profession that it’s noteworthy which gamers they don’t signal long-term. Thus, with Dansby Swanson now hanging out at Wrigley Field for the following seven seasons, the following man up is Vaughn Grissom, who was a nice shock in his 41 video games in 2022. But now he’s the full-time shortstop, and the Braves — no offense to Orlando Arcia — are relying on him to man the place transferring ahead. If he’s even a league-average participant, contemplating the expertise round him, the Braves will probably be comfortable, however Grissom was by no means considered a top-shelf prospect earlier than his 2022 cameo. Is he actually able to be an on a regular basis participant?
2) Is this the Ronald Acuña Jr. explosion yr?
You might recall that the Braves gained the World Series in extremely thrilling trend in 2021, which suggests something that will have gone flawed that season will largely be misplaced to historical past. (This is likely one of the many good issues about successful the World Series.) But that was additionally the beginning of Ronald Acuña Jr. dropping down all these “best players in baseball” lists. His damage that season value him an opportunity to be part of that World Series, and when he returned final yr, he was … good. He was good! But he wasn’t Ronald Acuña Jr., future Hall of Famer, like all of us thought he was going to be. He can nonetheless be that particular person: He is simply 25, in spite of everything. But Acuña hasn’t been an upper-tier celebrity because the damage. Is this the yr he turns into one once more?
1) Can Jazz Chisholm Jr. do this for an entire season?
Video recreation cowl star Jazz Chisholm Jr. was, for 60 video games final yr, the whole lot the Marlins have been ready for, and extra. He was a younger, electrical, ridiculously proficient charisma machine who hit for energy, received on base, performed nice protection and stole bases at almost each alternative. And then he received damage — therefore, solely the 60 video games. He’s again this yr, and at a brand new place in middle discipline, and he’s as soon as once more the linchpin of an offense that, regardless of the additions of Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, desperately wants him. Jazz is compulsively likable and might be the avatar for a franchise that has lengthy wanted one. But he must construct on final yr, and he wants to remain wholesome. Still, the sky’s the restrict right here.
2) Who’s the No. 2 starter now?
You understood the thought behind buying and selling Pablo López for Arraez, no query. The Marlins appeared to have a surplus of pitching, and so they have been famished for bats. Also, simply ask Twins followers how a lot enjoyable it’s to look at Arraez play every single day. But López was a key a part of his rotation and, surplus or not, the Marlins will miss him. Johnny Cueto was introduced in to supply innings, however what the Marlins might actually use is an enormous step ahead from Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers, Braxton Garrett or Edward Cabrera. Or, actually, all of them. Keep a watch on Sixto Sánchez, too, who continues to be recovering from his damage however has been pitching off a mound. The factor about having a deep rotation, although, is that rotations are stuffed with pitchers, and pitchers are at all times getting damage. If these guys don’t step up, a power might shortly develop into a weak spot.
1) Is the rotation already scaling down?
The Mets’ rotation was alleged to be the centerpiece of their complete staff, a 1-2 punch of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer that might terrify anybody, adopted by veteran hurlers who would supply dependable, high quality innings, making each collection a chore for opponents. And whereas Verlander and Scherzer (a mixed 78 years previous, by the way in which) are high quality to this point, the opposite 30-somethings within the rotation are in bother already. Free agent acquisition José Quintana is already out for the following three months, a minimum of; Japanese import Kodai Senga has already missed spring begins with tendinitis in his proper index finger; potential Quintana alternative David Peterson (who’s 27) is simply now again on the mound after taking a comebacker off his foot. It’s not that every one these accidents are season-ending, as even Quintana ought to be again in some unspecified time in the future. But it’s what occurs when you may have older pitchers: Injuries. And these are the younger guys!
2) Oh sure, about that World Baseball Classic … what now?
Whatever your ideas on Edwin Díaz’s damage and the World Baseball Classic, what is completed is completed, and Diaz positive appears like he’s going to miss vital time. That could also be extra of an emotional bummer — we’re going to overlook these trumpets — than one the Mets will probably be unable to beat. They even have a whole lot of bullpen arms, and David Robertson, whereas actually much less thrilling, is a greater than succesful (and skilled) nearer. And it’s not prefer it’s inconceivable to seek out additional bullpen arms, notably for a staff as motivated because the Mets. The actual query is that if that is one other a type of “here we go again” moments for the staff and its fanbase. The Mets had nice vibes for many of final season — a minimum of till they ran out of gasoline down the stretch. If you’re in search of nice vibes in 2023, that is actually not the way you wish to begin.
1) When do all the previous Padres prospects take over?
When you consider the Juan Soto commerce, do not forget that the Padres now solely have two extra possibilities to win a title earlier than Soto hits free company, however the Nationals are going to have these guys for years to come back. CJ Abrams is already right here and absolutely will probably be a lineup mainstay. MacKenzie Gore is within the rotation as effectively. The different three gamers are all among the many high six Nationals prospects, per MLB Pipeline: outfielders James Wood (1) and Robert Hassell III (2) and right-hander Jarlin Susana (6). It’s too early for Wood or Susana, however it’s not unthinkable to think about Hassell getting scorching and making a play to affix the large league membership late within the season. The Nationals, for all of the ache they went by in buying and selling Soto, actually did get a haul of prospects again, as any staff buying and selling away Juan Soto ought to. Those gamers, and their progress, are the first factor to trace for Nats followers over the following few years — beginning with this one.
2) Who do they flip at this Deadline?
The Nats’ present roster has a whole lot of guys who’re simply hanging round, making an attempt to make a reputation for themselves whereas there are lineup spots open. The trick is to benefit from the chance, which is strictly what Joey Meneses did final yr, utilizing the constant at-bats to make a terrific case that he’s very a lot a Major League common. The hope is that he can construct off his World Baseball Classic success and carry on hitting from the center of the Nats order. But don’t get too connected. He’ll flip 31 in April, which suggests it’s unlikely he’ll be part of the following Nats playoff staff. Would they flip him to a staff that wants a bat? Will they do the identical for Dominic Smith, Corey Dickerson, Jeimer Candelario and even Lane Thomas? They actually ought to.
1) Is Trea Turner precisely what this staff wanted?
Doesn’t it already really feel unusual that Kyle Schwarber spent a lot time main off final yr? Turner is the platonic splendid of a leadoff man for this staff, a speedster who can get on base, hit for some pop and be the pivot round which the remainder of the lineup revolves. He additionally ought to enhance the protection, even when he’s simply a median fielder. He additionally simply feels like a Phillie, the right match for a roster that, for all its stars, gave the impression to be lacking one large piece. Signing Turner proved that the Phillies don’t think about final yr a fluke, that they wish to exit and make the World Series once more this yr. Having him right here makes it more likely that that can occur.
2) When is Bryce full go?
I’ll always remember this homer. Will you?
Goodness gracious, I feel my head hit the ceiling when Bryce Harper took that swing. That’s Bryce Harper, the transcendent celebrity who has gained two MVP Awards and is as enjoyable to look at as any participant within the recreation. The query is: When will we see that man full time? Harper had Tommy John surgical procedure within the offseason, which, if his rehab goes effectively, might have him again as a DH, on the very least, by June. Will he be again within the discipline at any level this yr? Or will the Phillies should put Schwarber and Nick Castellanos again on the market when he returns? The Phillies aren’t the Phillies with out Harper. Baseball isn’t actually fairly baseball with out Harper. He can’t get again quickly sufficient.
Atlanta Braves: 97-65
New York Mets: 91-71
Philadelphia Phillies: 88-75
Miami Marlins: 75-87
Washington Nationals: 60-102
This appears like a three-playoff-team division to me — identical to it was final yr. I would even be tempted to push Philadelphia just a little greater, however being with out Harper for two-plus months makes the distinction. As for the Braves and Mets, that New York rotation is just a bit too previous to make me snug, and it’s not just like the lineup is that younger, both. But there are three potential World Series groups on this division. I’m unsure another division can say that.
