What Blue Jays history says about Tiedemann’s shot at impacting this year’s team

Ricky Tiedemann has gone from one of many largest tales at Toronto Blue Jays camp to a pitcher shut down on account of shoulder soreness and shuffled off to minor-league camp in a few weeks.

That’s not an indictment on the southpaw within the slightest. His absence from sport motion remains to be being described as precautionary and a 20-year-old with 11 profession innings above class-A can’t moderately be anticipated to make the big-league group.

Even so, it appears that evidently Blue Jays’ prime prospect is on a trajectory that might have him logging MLB innings earlier than 2023 is completed. After the group allowed Alek Manoah to debut after pitching simply 35 minor-league frames, it’s simple to ascertain Tiedemann having fun with an identical speedy ascent.

As a rule of thumb, evaluating pitching prospects to Manoah is a recipe for disappointment, although – and his state of affairs was much less just like Tiedemann’s than it appears on the floor.

Manoah was 23 when he debuted with the Blue Jays and his minimal minor-league observe report was bolstered by 241.1 school innings, plus an opaque workload on the group’s complicated throughout the cancelled minor-league season in 2020.

Tiedemann, however, has 78.2 professional innings to his title, buttressed by nothing greater than 38 frames for Golden West College. He’s additionally coming into his age-20 season. Plenty of strong prospects aren’t even sniffing double-A at Tiedemann’s age, not to mention taking a look at a doable MLB debut.

The southpaw is particular, however when considering what lies forward for him in 2023, it’s price understanding how little precedent exists for deploying pitchers his age within the historical past of the Blue Jays.

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Just 5 pitchers have appeared for the Blue Jays of their age-20 or youthful season, and a have a look at these conditions exhibits simply how uncommon Tiedemann will probably be if he’s in a position to break via this season:

Jeff Byrd

Season: 1977

How he did: 6.18 ERA and 4.90 FIP in 87.1 IP (17 begins) for 0.3 fWAR

What occurred subsequent: Not lots for Byrd.

After his tough displaying as a rookie, Byrd was demoted to triple-A in 1978 and lower throughout spring coaching in 1979. He spent his final skilled season taking part in for the Seattle Mariners’ class-A affiliate, and his baseball profession was executed earlier than his twenty third birthday.

Anything to study?: It’s simple to see that Byrd’s rookie season got here in 1977 and assume that it is a state of affairs the place Toronto merely rushed a pitcher to the majors as a result of they have been determined for expertise.

That’s true to an extent, however Byrd was surprisingly skilled on the minor-league stage earlier than his Blue Jays debut, with 400 professional innings underneath his belt.

Instead, this was an instance of a pitcher incomes a glance due to good outcomes regardless of disastrous peripherals. Byrd had a 4.14 ERA in his minor-league profession earlier than becoming a member of Toronto, together with a 3.13 mark in 10 double-A begins in 1977 earlier than he obtained the decision.

However, he additionally had a BB/9 of 6.46 and Okay/9 of 5.94 within the minors. That statistical profile foretold catastrophe, and a pitcher posting numbers like that merely wouldn’t earn a promotion right this moment.

The possibilities of Tiedemann performing like Byrd did within the minors is nearly non-existent, and if he did, the Blue Jays would go away him to type himself out. There’s no danger of the membership making the identical mistake it did in its first season.

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Victor Cruz

Season: 1978

How he did: 1.71 ERA and a pair of.71 FIP in 47.1 IP (9 saves) for 1.2 fWAR

What occurred subsequent: Cruz went on to have a productive, if comparatively temporary, profession as an MLB reliever. He retired having logged 271 innings on the highest stage throughout 5 seasons with a 3.09 ERA.

After his stellar rookie season, the Blue Jays traded Cruz for Alfredo Griffin and Phil Lansford.

Anything to study?: Calling on Cruz early labored out properly for the Blue Jays, as they obtained a productive season out of him and moved him for somebody who they used as an on a regular basis participant.

When Toronto acquired Cruz from the St. Louis Cardinals earlier than the 1978 season, they instantly transformed him to a reliever and noticed him carry out properly sufficient in triple-A to earn a name to the massive membership in June.

Tiedemann’s ceiling is simply too excessive for him to obtain related remedy, however the Cruz case reinforces the notion that even extraordinarily younger pitchers could be well-suited to high-leverage aid roles within the majors.

The Blue Jays’ present prime prospect would possibly discover himself pitching out of the bullpen for the big-league membership later within the season as a means of introducing him to the MLB stage and limiting his innings.

Roberto Osuna

Season: 2015

How he did: 2:58 ERA and three.02 FIP in 69.2 IP (20 saves) for 1.3 fWAR

What occurred subsequent: Osuna was one among MLB’s most dependable closers between 2015-19. The Blue Jays traded him shortly after he served a 75-game suspension for violating MLB’s home violence coverage.

His MLB profession got here to an finish in 2020 after he opted to not get a second Tommy John surgical procedure, and he presently plies his commerce in Japan.

Anything to study?: Starting Osuna out in a aid function in 2015 was controversial as he had the repertoire to start out, however he had additionally logged not more than 43.2 innings in any of his professional seasons, so constructing as much as a starter’s workload would’ve taken years.

The Blue Jays obtained nice on-field outcomes from dashing Osuna alongside in a aid function – and the group wanted stability within the bullpen after its aid corps ranked twenty third in fWAR with MLB’s sixth-worst ERA.

There’s an argument to be made that Toronto mishandled Osuna primarily based on its wants on the time and robbed itself of a future starter, nevertheless it’s inconceivable to know if that’s the case.

Osuna, like Cruz, is an instance of a pitcher thriving in a distinguished bullpen function regardless of his youth, however his improvement path most likely isn’t a superb mannequin for Tiedemann.

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Miguel Castro

Season: 2015

How he did: 4:38 ERA and 4.76 FIP in 12.2 IP (4 saves) for -0.1 fWAR

What occurred subsequent: The Blue Jays included Castro of their commerce for star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, and he’s been a gentle center reliever within the majors since 2017. The right-hander has produced a 4.12 ERA throughout 371.1 innings with 5 groups over eight MLB seasons.

Anything to study?: Castro’s case was corresponding to Osuna’s in quite a few methods.

For occasion, on FanGraphs Blue Jays prospect record for 2015, he ranked sixth whereas Osuna ranked seventh and so they have been each given the identical function projection (No. 4 starter/nearer) with very related anticipated paths to the massive leagues as starters by 2017.

Although Osuna offers a strong instance of immediate success residing throughout the realm of outcomes for younger pitchers, Castro has a special lesson to show.

The right-hander had a tricky time with the Blue Jays as a rookie and couldn’t set up himself as an enormous leaguer with the Colorado Rockies, both. It took Castro discovering his third group (the Baltimore Orioles) earlier than he achieved constant success.

When a younger pitcher’s debut doesn’t go as deliberate, it doesn’t essentially imply their confidence is shot or their improvement is damaged, they may simply want somewhat time. Castro discovered his groove after a bumpy begin and now he’s carving out a strong MLB profession.

Elvis Luciano

Season: 2019

How he did: 5:35 ERA and 5.56 FIP in 33.2 IP (0 begins) for -0.2 fWAR

What occurred subsequent: After spending most of his rookie season sitting within the bullpen ready for uncompetitive conditions, he then had his 2020 marketing campaign worn out by COVID.

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The right-hander made 14 begins on the double-A between 2021 and 2022, lacking many of the latter season with a stress fracture in his arm. He elected free company in December.

Anything to study?: In a phrase, no.

This was a weird state of affairs the place the Blue Jays hoped to make use of the actual fact that they had no intentions of competing in 2019 to nab a pitching prospect via the Rule 5 Draft and stash him within the bullpen all 12 months.

Luciano hardly ever pitched, and when he did it normally wasn’t fairly. He wasn’t prepared for the majors, which is truthful as a result of he was 19 and had no expertise above rookie ball earlier than 2019.

After a forgettable rookie 12 months, Toronto hoped to start growing Luciano within the minors in earnest, however that by no means panned out.

There is a distinction between artistic and efficient group constructing, and the Blue Jays’ capability for considering exterior the field didn’t bear fruit on this case.

What in regards to the 21-year-olds?

If we increase out Tiedemann’s peer group by a 12 months, we discover a few pitchers in Blue Jays’ historical past whose paths extra carefully mirror his personal:

Dave Stieb entered 1979 with simply 26 professional innings, however he pitched 51 frames at each class-A and triple-A earlier than getting the decision in June 1979. He by no means regarded again.

Brandon Lyon got here into 2001 with 60.2 professional innings at low-A and made 20 begins at double-A and triple-A earlier than incomes a promotion in August. He flamed out as a starter, however had a 12-year MLB profession as a reliever.

Moving the pattern up by a 12 months yields solely 14 extra outcomes, although. Finding Blue Jays pitchers on the trajectory Tiedemann finds himself on is hard.

The southpaw is not any lock to make his major-league debut this 12 months, nevertheless it’s an end result that wouldn’t be remotely shocking primarily based on what we’ve seen from him up to now. If he’s in a position to crack the Blue Jays roster, will probably be a formidable achievement that has few parallels in franchise historical past.

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