How Canada can advance out of Pool C at World Baseball Classic

PHOENIX – The math on the development situations for Pool C within the World Baseball Classic can get a little bit gnarly, so let’s begin easy.

First, the winner of Canada-Mexico, each 2-1 heading into their Wednesday afternoon conflict, goes to Miami for the quarter-finals. The United States, additionally 2-1, joins them in the event that they maintain Colombia, which is 1-2, within the night. 

Those are the cleanest and most simple outcomes on the ultimate day at Chase Field and, as Canadian supervisor Ernie Whitt put it after his group’s 5-0 win over Colombia on Tuesday, “that takes all the math out of play.”

Now, the mathematics comes again into play if Colombia manages to shock the United States.

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Should that occur, each would each be 2-2, as would the loser of Canada-Mexico, making a three-way tie for the second quarter-final berth and the necessity for number-crunching.

In Scenario No. 1, Colombia, Mexico and the United States all end 2-2. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head play, and in a three-team state of affairs, if one group received all its video games towards the opposite groups, it takes the very best spot. In this case, Colombia, which opened with a victory over Mexico after which would have overwhelmed the Americans within the finale, strikes on. 

In Scenario No. 2, Canada, Colombia and the United States all end 2-2. The first tiebreaker doesn’t work since every of the groups completed 1-1 towards the opposite two, so we transfer on to the second tiebreaker, which is the bottom quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the variety of defensive outs recorded within the video games in that spherical between the groups tied. 

Canada suffered a 12-1, mercy-rule loss to the Americans after which shut out Colombia 5-0, permitting 12 runs whereas recording 45 outs. Colombia has allowed 5 runs with 27 outs heading into the finale whereas the United States, barring a double-digit slugfest Wednesday, is within the driver’s seat with one run towards and 21 outs to this point. 

For each Canada and Mexico, that basically means there’s only one lane to the subsequent spherical: win the final recreation.

No matter how that performs out, Great Britain, which had an incredible match, is out of the working, at 1-3. 

But they’ll have one thing at stake Wednesday too, as a result of if Colombia loses and likewise finishes 1-3, the Brits would end fourth within the group and safe a spot within the subsequent World Baseball Classic, which may very well be as quickly as 2026. Colombia would end final and must re-qualify subsequent time.

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LET’S GET ROWDY: Rowdy Tellez spots a few acquainted faces, decides to stroll over and, earlier than pleasantries may be exchanged, begins shaking his head. “I’m not talking to anyone from Canada,” he mentioned with a smirk.

The massive man is kidding, in fact – Ryan is sort of solely referred to as “Rowdy” for a motive – though loads will likely be at stake Wednesday when Tellez and Mexico conflict with Canada for a berth in Miami.

Tellez, born in Sacramento, Calif., is eligible to play for Mexico by way of his dad’s lineage, and when the chance to hitch got here up, “I didn’t turn it down. I really wanted to play. Found out we were playing in Arizona, kind of close to home. And it’s been amazing, playing for the country that my dad grew up with and my family’s from. It’s a very special moment for my family.”

Also particular for the 27-year-old drafted within the 30^th spherical of the 2013 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays is the progress he’s made since his July 6, 2021, commerce to the Milwaukee Brewers for reliever Trevor Richards and minor-league righty Bowden Francis.

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Stuck with out a path to enjoying time on the Blue Jays, he’s discovered common at-bats with the Brewers, batting .272/.33/.481 in 56 video games after the deal earlier than ripping 35 homers with 89 RBIs in 153 video games final yr. 

In some ways, he’s the left-handed energy menace the Blue Jays sought once they gave Brandon Belt $9.3 million this low season.

“I always told people that I felt like if I got a full season and a full amount of at-bats, I played in 155 games last year, that I could perform at a high level and be an elite hitter,” mentioned Tellez. “There’s always room for improvement. I had a good year to build on. Power showed up, but I’m definitely a better hitter than .219. All in all, it’s just a learning curve. I got a chance to play every day and that’s what I needed to show people I’m capable of it. But now I need to be better and to build on it.”

Tellez stays the identical hitter from a mechanics and strategy standpoint that he was with the Blue Jays, however actually benefitted from supervisor Craig Counsell telling him when he arrived that, “‘You’re the guy, I’m going to give you a chance to show us what you can do.’”

“Having that mental freedom, knowing that a manager had faith in me and I was going to play 95 per cent of the time, gave me peace of mind, the ability to go out and be myself,” Tellez added. “And if I did fail that day or if I was struggling, knowing that I was still going to be in the lineup also gave me a peace of mind on defence, being able to impact the team in a positive way, even if my bat wasn’t working.”

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MATHIESON’S MOMENT: Scott Mathieson hadn’t closed out a recreation since he retired from the Yomiuri Giants in Japan on the finish of the 2019 season, when he got here out for the ninth inning of Canada’s 5-0 win over Colombia, and a few outdated emotions hit in several methods as he did.

“My whole career, I always struggled with the butterflies and that nervousness going out there. That early in my career, I hated and I didn’t know how to handle,” mentioned Mathieson. “Getting to feel it again, I realize it’s one of the things I miss the most. So, like riding a bike and a little emotional, where it’s something that I really, truly missed. I loved being out there.”

The 39-year-old from Aldergrove, B.C., has stayed in form however solely actually began ramping issues up about three weeks earlier than the World Baseball Classic. Nonetheless, he didn’t look overly rusty in working round a few singles to open the body earlier than getting out of hassle.

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“I’m on Day 17 of playing catch right now, but like I told Greg Hamilton and Team Canada, I’ll never say no,” mentioned Mathieson. “I’ll play international baseball as long as I possibly can, as long as I can help the team, whether that’s mopping up innings or helping young guys, whatever it is. Any chance I get to do that again, I’m going for it. It’s a game that I grew up loving. I had to do it one more time.”

The inning could also be his final, relying on what occurs with Canada shifting ahead. He closed out a dominant pitching efficiency behind Noah Skirrow, Curtis Taylor and Trevor Brigden.

“I’m in awe and a little jealous that I used to be able to do that, but I don’t quite have that anymore,” he mentioned of watching his teammates dominate. “It’s exciting to see them and to know that they have great futures ahead of them. The way they threw is pretty incredible. We’ve had a hard time throwing up zeroes in this tournament so far, so it’s nice to be able to throw up a lot of zeroes (on Tuesday).”

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QUOTABLE: “When I first got drafted, I didn’t know what my career was going to look like. Obviously, you have high expectations for yourself. But being able to put on the jersey at the age of 30, and I’m about to turn 31, means the world to me. I feel like I hit a turn in my career a couple years ago after I had an elbow surgery. This is the kind of moment that you train for. Whenever you’re going through rehab, whenever you’re going through the rough times or your third year in triple-A or whatever it is, if you think about moments like this, where you get to go take the mound for your country or big leagues or whatever, it’s just something that I do not take lightly.” – Rob Zastryzny, on getting the beginning for Canada versus Mexico

More from Sportsnet

‘Pretty surreal’: Skirrow shines as Canada bounces again with win over Colombia

Canada star Freddie Freeman out of Wednesday’s WBC recreation vs. Mexico

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