5 dark horse Cy Young candidates in ’23

We’ve had ample proof in recent times that the Cy Young Award in every league is not any lock for pitchers with observe information that counsel they’re favorites to win the dignity. Just final yr, Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara was named the National League Cy Young Award winner with a breakout season, and the yr earlier than that, Robbie Ray seemingly got here out of nowhere to dominate opposing hitters and win the American League Cy Young Award.

Heading into the 2023 season, which pitchers are darkish horses to take house the distinguished award this yr? We requested 5 MLB.com writers to weigh in.

Cristian Javier, Astros
Key stat: 1.05 ERA over last 12 begins (together with postseason)

Framber Valdez is the plain option to take up the mantle of Houston’s employees ace after the departure of reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander as a free agent. After all, Valdez threw 201 1/3 innings of two.82 ERA ball and earned a fifth-place Cy Young end in his personal proper final season. But don’t overlook the 25-year-old Javier within the Cy Young race.

Javier began not one, however two mixed no-hitters final season, together with the second no-no in World Series historical past, so he’s not an unknown commodity by any means. But given he didn’t actually have a everlasting rotation spot till final May, and has simply 304 1/3 innings underneath his belt within the Majors, he’s not precisely a Cy Young favourite, both. If there’s any concern about Javier’s means to take care of his efficiency as he scales up his innings, think about that he truly acquired stronger within the latter levels of 2022, posting a 1.05 ERA in his last 12 begins (postseason included), with no runs allowed in his final six.

Javier doesn’t have top-tier velocity, however the elite rising motion he will get on his four-seam fastball makes it extremely robust to deal with, even when he throws it within the strike zone. Javier allowed a .187 batting common on four-seamers within the zone final season, almost 100 factors decrease than the batting common (.275) hitters posted on these pitches MLB-wide. He enhances his fastball with a nasty slider that has confirmed to be one of many recreation’s hardest-to-hit pitches the previous two seasons, yielding a .109 common — the third lowest of any pitch sort.

That spectacular two-pitch package deal might propel Javier to new heights in his first season as a full-time starter, maybe even to the highest of the AL Cy Young Award voting. — Thomas Harrigan

Triston McKenzie, Guardians
Key stat: 6.3 hits per 9 innings in his profession

If you’re looking for a lesser-known pitcher to emerge as a Cy Young contender, the Cleveland Pitching Factory is an effective place to look. McKenzie checks quite a lot of bins in that he’s been hidden a bit in Shane Bieber’s shadow, and the younger righty is coming off a season that was higher than you understand: a 2.96 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 190 strikeouts in 191 1/3 innings.

The 25-year-old’s 6.3 hits-per-nine fee since his 2020 debut is second-best amongst all pitchers with at the least 300 frames in that span, behind solely Javier and forward of Corbin Burnes, Alek Manoah and Carlos Rodón. He additionally quietly registered three video games with 12-plus strikeouts and 0 walks in 2022, turning into simply the 14th pitcher in MLB historical past to drag off that many such video games in a season.

McKenzie’s dynamite curveball is his largest weapon: He permitted a .120 common and .203 slugging share on the providing final yr. And his .165 xwOBA on the deuce was among the many 10 finest within the sport — on any pitch. He additionally registered an elite 45.0% whiff fee on the curve, accordingly upping its utilization from 18.0% to 21.9% final yr.

Concerns? McKenzie’s tendency to give up the lengthy ball (1.4 profession HR/9) and his means to carry up over 30 begins once more given his slender body (6-foot-5, 165 kilos) and harm historical past as a prospect. That mentioned, something near a repeat efficiency will garner award consideration as McKenzie continues to ascertain himself — and possibly make yours really 2-for-2 on this class. — Jason Catania

Pablo López, Twins
Key stat: 2.30 ERA by means of first 12 begins of 2022

López was having fun with a breakout season that was on observe to garner critical NL Cy Young Award consideration till about midway by means of. After being struck on his proper wrist by a Michael Brantley line drive in Houston, the right-hander simply wasn’t the identical. On that day, López owned a 2.30 ERA over 70 1/3 innings. From there on out, he made 20 begins over which his ERA was greater than twice that, at 4.68.

With his five-pitch combine and a presumably wholesome proper wrist, to not point out a commerce from the Marlins to the Twins, López is taking a look at a recent begin in additional methods than one. Add to that his new house ballpark — Target Field is among the extra pitcher-friendly venues in baseball — and we may very well be taking a look at a Cy Young Award winner we didn’t precisely see coming after he struggled within the second half of final season. — Manny Randhawa

Hunter Greene, Reds
Key stat: 337 pitches thrown 100-plus mph in 2022

Greene goes to be the breakout ace of 2023. Just have a look at the best way he closed out his rookie yr: 4 begins in September and October, a 0.78 ERA, 14.5 Ok/9 and a fastball that averaged 99.8 mph. Yes, his fastball sits at 100 mph as a starter. That’s Jacob deGrom stage. Actually, it was Jacob deGrom-plus — Greene’s fastball velo over the ultimate month was the quickest by any starter for any month of 2022, forward of deGrom’s 99.3 mph in August. Greene hit triple digits 99 instances in September and October, 5 instances greater than the next-closest starters, deGrom and Alcantara.

Greene determining how you can get essentially the most out of his explosive fastball was the important thing to his success down the stretch — he threw it extra usually, elevated it extra usually and turned it into his No. 1 put-away pitch. Greene recorded the 4 quickest strikeouts by a beginning pitcher all season (102.4 mph, 102.1 mph, 101.9 mph and 101.8 mph) … and all 4 got here in September and October. The 23-year-old’s stuff is so good {that a} full breakout season for Greene means a Cy Young-level pitcher. — David Adler

George Kirby, Mariners
Key stat: 15 walks in last 15 begins

He did end sixth within the Rookie of the Year voting, however he obtained zero Cy Young assist, so we’re contemplating this horse darkish sufficient. Kirby, as a rookie, acquired off to an honest sufficient begin, with a 4.08 ERA by means of his first two months of play. But then he discovered how you can throw a sinker and turned his cutter into one thing extra like a slider, and hastily, he posted a 2.92 ERA over his last three months (15 begins), throughout which he walked all of 15 batters, or one per recreation. For an encore, he’s now apparently engaged on a splitter modeled on Kevin Gausman’s. If he’s already confirmed he can change his pitches in-season, what occurs when he has all winter to work on a brand new one? — Mike Petriello