Here are 8 can’t-miss Winter Meetings predictions

The Winter Meetings return Sunday to the place they final left, simply because the Hot Stove will get hopping.

San Diego would be the scene of the 2022 Winter Meetings, similar because it was when this occasion was final held, pre-pandemic, in 2019. That yr, the Meetings had been particularly energetic, with Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) and Gerrit Cole (Yankees) agreeing to record-setting pitching contracts on consecutive days, the Angels signing Anthony Rendon and the Phillies signing Zack Wheeler, amongst different strikes.

This winter, with Jacob deGrom now off the board in a blockbuster cope with the Rangers, we may see an analogous spree of exercise on the Meetings. (Let’s hope so, anyway.) So listed below are some makes an attempt to guess what offers and developments would possibly go down.

(Just to get forward of the back-tracking I’m about to unleash upon you, sure, I’m the identical idiot who wrote these earth-shaking predictions on the onset of the offseason. And, sure, I’m going to pivot away from just a few of them right here, as a result of, as I warned on the time, none of these had been particularly prone to occur, anyway! Plus, what enjoyable is studying the identical factor twice?)

The American League single-season dwelling run record-holder signing what appears to be like to be, at minimal, a $300 million contract lower than a yr after boldly turning down a $230 million extension supply is simply the kind of whopper the Winter Meetings are made for. It certain appears to be like possible, as a result of Judge’s vacation spot is a spark that may set off a lot different motion on this market, and it’s not as if there are a ton of groups concerned right here.

So … which workforce will or not it’s? Though we love our thriller groups (and it might be enjoyable to see one swoop in late), the marketplace for Judge has principally developed as anticipated — Yankees vs. Giants. It’s going to be tough (although not not possible) for the Giants to area an apparent contender in 2023 whereas nonetheless paying Judge his market worth. So he’ll stick with the Yankees and grow to be their new captain (or maybe the title needs to be “Chief Justice”).

The Mets will make their post-deGrom transfer

And it’s going to be Justin Verlander. They did the mega short-term deal for Max Scherzer a yr in the past, they usually’re going to do the identical with one other seemingly future Hall of Famer.

Verlander and his spouse Kate Upton bought their dwelling in Beverly Hills and purchased a house in Jupiter, Fla. You assume they need to criss-cross the nation once more to signal with the Dodgers? Nah, that’s an excessive amount of trouble. Verlander will keep on the Treasure Coast for Spring Training, and his three-year deal — whereas enormous — received’t crush a Mets workforce that additionally has to discover a means so as to add energy to the lineup. Yet once more, he’ll pitch for a workforce that wears orange. It’s destiny.

(The Astros have the pitching depth to allocate their monetary assets elsewhere, they usually’ve already begun to try this with the José Abreu deal.)

In this free-agent class, Taillon is in that subsequent tier behind deGrom, Verlander and Carlos Rodón. Once Verlander will get his large Mets contract, there’s going to be critical sticker shock with Rodón, dragging his market out a tad.

But the Orioles — a workforce able to announce its presence within the market and a workforce in want of extra secure beginning pitching — goes to acknowledge that Taillon, after all of the accidents and the sickness, nonetheless has extra within the tank — when it comes to general efficiency and consistency — than what we’ve seen, thus far, and might help information them the place they’re attempting to go.

The Phillies will signal a shortstop

Another winter, one other glorious shortstop market. Things can change — particularly as soon as Judge makes up his thoughts — however the Phillies are the workforce on the forefront of it proper now. They know they’ll be with out Bryce Harper in the beginning of the season, they’ll simply slide Bryson Stott to second to switch free agent Jean Segura, they’ve an proprietor in John Middleton who cherished that style of the World Series, they usually have a president of baseball operations in Dave Dombrowski who is sweet at speaking folks into spending giant quantities of cash.

It’s chalk to recommend Trea Turner will go to Philly, given his historical past with Harper, his spouse being from close by New Jersey and his need to coach in Florida. The match simply makes an excessive amount of sense to not occur … and it’ll occur on the Winter Meetings.

A workforce that has by no means picked at No. 1 will win the Draft lottery

So who will land that coveted No. 1 decide? Look, if I had been able to telling you lottery outcomes earlier than they occur, I wouldn’t have to invest on the place baseball gamers would signal, as a result of I’d be the one signing them.

But right here’s a enjoyable — and positively foolproof — means of fixing this riddle.

Just just a few weeks in the past, the most important lottery prize in historical past — the $2.04 billion Powerball — was received. The profitable ticket was bought in Altadena, Calif. The greatest baseball participant to hail from Altadena was left-handed pitcher Jim Merritt. And Merritt’s greatest season was in 1970, when he was a 20-game winner and All-Star for … drumroll please … the Cincinnati Reds!

Combine that tremendous scientific breakdown with the truth that the Reds have respectable odds of profitable this lottery (13.2 p.c, fourth greatest among the many 18 contributors), and all of it is sensible. The Reds have by no means had the No. 1 general decide, in order that they’re due.

There will probably be two new Hall of Famers

Here’s the poll: Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro and Curt Schilling.

And right here’s the committee: Hall of Fame members Chipper Jones, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Ryne Sandberg, Lee Smith, Frank Thomas and Alan Trammell; executives Paul Beeston, Theo Epstein, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Dave St. Peter and Ken Williams; and veteran media members/historians Steve Hirdt, LaVelle Neal and Susan Slusser.

With little in the way in which of transparency throughout this course of, all we will do is speculate on how this would possibly play out. It all comes right down to who’s within the room. We know that Slusser and Neal have voted for Bonds and Clemens within the latest previous. So that’s attention-grabbing. The most secure wager, although, is that candidates related to PEDs (Bonds, Clemens and Palmeiro) are left stranded. And it’s arduous to mount a coherent Hall of Fame case for Belle.

As for the others, Slusser and Neal have additionally solid votes within the latest previous for Schilling, and one would assume he has Epstein’s help given their Boston connection. Schilling’s controversies away from the sphere are the type of stuff extra prone to be neglected in a small voting physique like this than they had been within the BBWAA vote. So it says right here that he’ll get in.

McGriff may need one of the best possibilities of anyone on this poll. He performed with Jones and Maddux, and Beeston not solely had him as a participant in Toronto however later made him an advisor. His profession was lengthy sufficient to have been a recent of all of the Hall of Famers on this committee. So the Crime Dog ought to fare effectively right here.

That leaves Mattingly and Murphy. They had been by no means shut on earlier BBWAA or small-committee ballots, they usually don’t have the longevity that’s typically rewarded in votes like this. Personally, I believe their Hall case is robust sufficient to advantage inclusion, and I hope that’s the consequence. But I can’t go as far as to foretell that, particularly in a course of through which it’s tough for a couple of or two candidates to drag by way of.

Long story quick: It will probably be Schilling and McGriff. Anyway, let’s hope any individual will get in through this committee, as a result of there’s a not-small probability that the BBWAA pitches a shutout this yr.

The catcher commerce market will start to maneuver

This goes to get began on the Meetings, with the Guardians finishing a deal for Murphy. The two groups acquired far down the highway in discussions final summer time, they usually ought to have the ability to end the job now. Cleveland is reluctant to half with any of its prime beginning pitching prospects (Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee) however ought to have sufficient prospect capital to get a deal completed with or with out a kind of arms.

The relaxation will principally be relievers

Andrew Chafin to the D-backs, Taylor Rogers to the Phillies, Carlos Estévez to the Cubs, David Robertson to the Rockies. That type of stuff.

Yes, the above would nonetheless go away us with a LOT of unfinished business on this offseason, however would nonetheless qualify as one heck of every week. A Winter Meetings that was definitely worth the wait!