5 hitters poised to bounce back in 2023
Every hitter endures some ups and downs all through a Major League season, however generally these downs final a bit longer than anticipated. That was actually the case final season for the 5 gamers listed beneath, every of whom went into 2022 with lofty expectations — and a few even had MVP aspirations.
But with Spring Training beneath manner and the 2022 season totally previously, we requested 5 MLB.com writers to select their finest guess for a hitter most probably to bounce again in ’23 — and here is what they needed to say.
Max Muncy, Dodgers
Key stat: .227 BABIP in 2022
Put merely, lingering harm points and an absence of luck conspired in opposition to Muncy final 12 months. The slugger’s robust 2021 ended with a torn left UCL as he tried to catch a throw at first base that took his arm into the trail of a baserunner on the ultimate day of the common season, costing him that October and impacting his efficiency properly into 2022. In truth, he went on the injured record in late May on account of left elbow irritation. His common on the time? Just .150.
Even when he returned two weeks later, it took Muncy some time to seek out his groove. He was slashing .161/.310/.303 with solely 10 doubles and 9 homers in 83 video games as of July 31. Here’s the place the dangerous luck have to be highlighted, as a result of Muncy’s BABIP at that time was a laughably low .190. From Aug. 1, he slashed a extra Muncy-like .247/.358/.500 with 12 doubles and 12 homers in 53 video games — thanks partially to a extra cheap .282 BABIP.
With fly-ball tendencies and an absence of pace, Muncy doesn’t precisely have a high-BABIP profile, however his .227 mark final season was the fourth-worst BABIP in MLB. Funny sufficient, that wasn’t even the worst of his seven-year profession: He posted a .203 BABIP within the shortened 2020 season, solely to rebound with a down-ballot MVP marketing campaign (135 OPS+, career-high 36 HR) — regardless of a .257 BABIP.
Amid all of the hardship he endured final 12 months, Muncy maintained his elite plate self-discipline (99th percentile stroll fee, a hundredth percentile chase fee) together with exit velos and hard-hit charges in keeping with his profession norms. In different phrases, search for a return to kind in his age-32 season. — Jason Catania
Tyler O’Neill, Cardinals
Key stat: .392 xwOBA in 2021
O’Neill was among the finest all-around gamers within the Majors in 2021, becoming a member of Ronald Acuña Jr., Shohei Ohtani and Fernando Tatis Jr. as the one qualifiers to rank within the ninetieth percentile or higher in each xwOBA (primarily based on high quality of contact, strikeouts and walks) and dash pace. O’Neill completed eighth in NL MVP Award voting after hitting .286 with 34 homers, 15 steals and a .912 OPS over 138 video games.
Though he regressed with the bat final season and slashed simply .228/.308/.392, the 27-year-old outfielder nonetheless flashed above-average abilities in a wide range of areas whereas making notable strides in bettering his plate self-discipline and decreasing his strikeout fee. And after lacking vital time within the first half of final season with a proper shoulder impingement and a left hamstring pressure, he began to look a lot nearer to his 2021 self down the stretch.
O’Neill recorded a .387 xwOBA over his last 31 video games — roughly one-third of his season — whereas socking eight dingers in that span, earlier than one other left hamstring harm stalled him in mid-September. In addition to his harm misfortune, he handled some poor luck on the plate, tying for the Twenty second-largest hole (24 factors) between his xwOBA (.331) and his precise wOBA (.307). O’Neill doesn’t have an extended observe report of success exterior of 2021, however he’s due for an uptick in manufacturing this season. — Thomas Harrigan
Nick Castellanos, Phillies
Key stat: .539 xSLG from 2019-21 (.395 in ’22)
Though Castellanos in the end made some huge performs through the Phillies’ postseason run – together with his protection of all issues – his debut season in Philadelphia was principally disastrous. After signing a five-year, $100 million deal final offseason, Castellanos hit simply 13 house runs and posted a career-worst .694 OPS in 2022. That got here on the heels of a 34-homer marketing campaign with the Reds in ’21 during which he had a .939 OPS and made his first All-Star look.
“Last year was last year,” Castellanos mentioned not too long ago.
Castellanos has mentioned he wasn’t snug final 12 months. He was “pissed off, unhappy, frustrated.” The extra-base hits he had change into identified for — his 278 doubles from his first full season in 2014 by ’21 had been essentially the most in MLB — disappeared. He ranked within the backside quarter of the league in common exit velocity and hard-hit fee. His barrel proportion dipped to six.6%, down from 10.6% in 2021 and a career-best 16% in ’20. That mentioned, his whiff fee was truly down barely from his ’20 mark and his chase fee was up solely barely. The solely vital distinction was that Castellanos swung on the first pitch a career-high 47.5% of the time — up from 42% in ’21 and 37.8% in ’20.
Castellanos has by no means shied away from telling it how it’s, and he says he’s extra snug and settled in heading into ‘23. If that’s really the case, count on the previous Silver Slugger to be again close to the highest of the leaderboard in doubles, particularly enjoying his house video games at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. — Paul Casella
Jesse Winker, Brewers
Key stat: .392 xwOBA from 2020-21
Winker was among the finest hitters within the Majors on a fee foundation from 2020-21, rating in the identical vary as Yordan Alvarez, Paul Goldschmidt, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani. And his outcomes matched his anticipated metrics (that are primarily based on high quality of contact, strikeouts and walks). But following an offseason commerce from Cincinnati to Seattle, Winker’s anticipated manufacturing plummeted in 2022, and his precise numbers adopted go well with (.219/.344/.344).
As it seems, there could also be a obviously apparent motive for this. Never a paragon of sturdiness, Winker managed to play in 136 video games for the Mariners however did so whereas hindered by a meniscus harm in his left knee, and extra troubling, a neck harm. Both points led to offseason surgical procedure, the latter a disc alternative process that he mentioned paid rapid dividends, doubtlessly assuaging signs that had plagued him for years. It’s too early to know if the 29-year-old will keep his well being, however there appears to be motive for optimism.
It additionally doesn’t damage that Seattle traded Winker to Milwaukee, whose American Family Field ranks because the fifth-best house run park for lefties — 14 spots forward of the Mariners’ T-Mobile Park. (For what it’s price, Winker has slashed .344/.440/.591 in 109 profession plate appearances in Milwaukee.) In different phrases, the stage is about for a rejuvenated Winker to return to his standing as an All-Star-caliber bat in 2023. — Andrew Simon
Jared Walsh, Angels
Key stat: .417 wOBA vs. RHP from 2020-21, sixth finest in MLB (min. 400 PA)
And right here’s yet one more lefty slugger who’s attempting to bounce again from an injury-marred marketing campaign. Walsh skilled the signs of thoracic outlet syndrome for a number of years previous to final season, however they worsened over the course of 2022. The fixed tightness in his neck and left shoulder, in addition to the tingling in his fingertips, made him a shell of his earlier self on the plate.
Back in 2020, Walsh crushed 9 house runs over his last 20 video games through the shortened season and was in a position to carry that momentum over into 2021, when he posted a 126 wRC+ — which means he was 26% higher than league common with the bat. Walsh’s skill to make authoritative contact was displayed in his 11.3% barrel fee and by rating within the 94th percentile when it got here to most exit velocity. He slashed .333/.405/.589 in practically 400 plate appearances versus right-handed pitching. He smashed 29 house runs and made the All-Star group. Walsh was merely the Angels’ finest on a regular basis hitter not named Shohei Ohtani, that season’s unanimous AL MVP.
All of Walsh’s numbers slumped final 12 months, understandably. He even waned in opposition to righties, delivering a .660 OPS. But now, practically six months after corrective surgical procedure, Walsh says he’s feeling near 100% in spring camp. He is in line to obtain the majority of his at-bats versus righty pitchers, which clearly performs to the 29-year-old’s strengths, and there may be optimism that he can recapture his kind from two years in the past. That would go an extended option to serving to the Angels defy their low playoff likelihood. — Brian Murphy
