Who will be the 2023 home run king?

Aaron Judge all however locked up the house run crown fairly early final summer time on his strategy to hitting an American League-record 62 homers — 16 greater than every other participant within the Majors.

But as the main target shifts to 2023, it is value noting that no participant has led MLB in dwelling runs in consecutive seasons in additional than a decade. So will somebody dethrone Judge this season or will he as soon as once more run away with the title?

We requested 5 MLB.com writers to choose their 2023 dwelling run king, and this is who they picked:

José Bautista of the 2010-11 Blue Jays is the one participant this century to guide the Majors in homers outright in consecutive seasons. So, whereas predicting one other dwelling run title for Judge might appear like an apparent selection at first blush, that is really an against-the-grain choice, folks.

Following his monumental 2022 marketing campaign, Judge is the lone energetic huge leaguer with a number of 50-homer seasons to his credit score. Only Nolan Arenado (229) has gone deep extra usually than Judge (220) since his 2016 debut, and the reigning AL MVP has almost 1,000 fewer plate appearances than the Cardinals star over that span. Even in Judge’s injury-shortened seasons of ’18 and ‘19, he was on tempo for roughly 40 homers in every. Only 4 gamers reached the 40-homer plateau final season, and that’s mainly Judge’s flooring.

It’s silly to foretell that Judge will surpass 60 once more. However, as if he wanted any assist, the 2023 schedule seems to be in his favor. The balanced format might profit all AL East squads, and Judge ought to get pleasure from these additional Interleague matchups after crushing National League pitching for 10 dwelling runs and a 1.313 OPS over 20 video games final yr. Here’s one such sequence to circle in your calendars proper now: Judge will go to Coors Field for the primary time from July 14-16, instantly after the All-Star break. — Brian Murphy

Last yr, Trout hit 40 dwelling runs in simply 119 video games, turning into simply the fourth participant to hit 40 whereas taking part in fewer than 120 video games. He has three 40-homer seasons since 2015, tied for many in MLB throughout that span. He hits the ball onerous and hits it within the air — the 2 key parts to hitting a house run. In the eight years of Statcast monitoring, Trout’s sweet-spot charge has been above MLB common in every season — which means he’s constantly making line-drive and fly-ball contact. Check. His hard-hit charge has been above MLB common, too. Check once more. In 2022, he had a 19.7% barrel charge, the very best he’s had below Statcast monitoring. Barrels are batted balls with the perfect mixture of launch angle and exit velocity, usually leading to extra-base hits. To that time, 38 of Trout’s 40 homers had been barreled.

Above all, although, he’s Mike Trout. We know he can do it. — Sarah Langs

Pop quiz, sizzling shot: Which participant has hit probably the most homers in baseball over the previous 4 years? Duh, it’s the Polar Bear, who has smashed 146 — together with a rookie-record and MLB-high 53 in 2019 — a complete that’s 9 greater than Judge’s 137. Alonso has additionally averaged a whopping 46 dingers per 162 video games and he is dropped his strikeout charge from 26.4% in his debut season to 18.7% final yr. Oh, and the two-time Home Run Derby champ nonetheless has the power to hit the ball as onerous as nearly anybody (see: 116.5 mph max exit velo from 2022).

Another key issue to contemplate? Unlike Judge and Trout, who had been chosen first and second on this “draft,” Alonso has had no points with harm. In reality, he’s performed 530 out of a doable 546 video games in his 4 seasons — a mark that ranks third within the huge leagues throughout that point. As he enters his age-28 season, Alonso has the ability, the previous manufacturing and the sturdiness to seize the house run crown once more. — Jason Catania

Full disclosure, I used to be toying with the concept of selecting Ohtani as my selection to guide all pitchers in strikeouts this season — however I as a substitute settled on rolling with him as my dwelling run chief. That alone speaks to the absurdity of his expertise, however that’s not a shock to anybody at this level. Focusing solely on Ohtani the hitter, he has 80 dwelling runs over the previous two seasons. Only Aaron Judge (101) has hit extra throughout that span.

And Ohtani’s homers are something however low-cost ones. Over the previous two seasons, he’s hit eight dwelling runs with an exit velocity of no less than 115 mph, trailing solely Giancarlo Stanton (13). Even Judge, who has 21 extra homers general, has solely six such homers throughout that stretch. Ohtani’s dwelling runs have additionally traveled a mean of 412 ft, the third-longest distance amongst all gamers with no less than 50 dwelling runs in that span. Only C.J. Cron (423 ft), who performed his dwelling video games at Coors Field, and Kyle Schwarber (413 ft) have averaged longer homers.

If each Ohtani and Trout can keep wholesome, it’s doable that the 2023 dwelling run chase performs out solely inside the Angels’ lineup – although Judge and Co. definitely determine to have one thing to say about that. — Paul Casella

I picked Alvarez once we did this train final season, and whereas that didn’t precisely work out — thanks, Judge — Alvarez additionally did nothing to harm the notion that he has a house run title in his future. First, there’s all of the purple on his Baseball Savant web page: one hundredth percentile in common exit velocity, hard-hit charge, barrel charge and anticipated slugging share. Pretty a lot no one makes higher-quality contact than Alvarez, who additionally gave himself extra alternatives for dingers by slicing greater than 5 share factors off his strikeout charge. Or you possibly can ignore all these numbers and simply watch Alvarez’s large walk-off homer from Game 1 of the ALDS on a loop to get the identical impression.

Either manner, Alvarez is simply 25 years previous, with off-the-charts expertise and a monitor file of crushing baseballs. If he can keep wholesome for a full season (and Judge doesn’t creator one other historic marketing campaign), he might be within the combine. — Andrew Simon