3 free-agent hitters likely helped by new shift rules

Some of these hitters are free brokers — and which means groups might discover some additional worth in signing a participant who finally ends up performing higher than earlier than after they do not must face defensive shifts anymore.

It’s not simply large lefty mashers, both (aka, Joey Gallo sorts). Let’s search for some hitters you may not consider immediately.

Here are three under-the-radar free-agent hitters whose worth could possibly be boosted by the brand new shift guidelines in 2023.

Profar is a switch-hitter, so that you may suppose his points with the shift could be diminished by the at-bats he takes right-handed. He does not get shifted on these (solely 3% of his righty plate appearances in 2022 had a shifted infield).

But a hitter simply will not face as many left-handed pitchers as righties — Profar may get double or triple the at-bats in opposition to righties as lefties in a given season, and all these at-bats he takes as a lefty imply lots of shifts. Profar will get shifted on about two-thirds of his lefty plate appearances, and for the final couple of seasons with the Padres, there’s been an enormous disparity between his numbers in these plate appearances vs. the third the place he does not face a shift.

Profar as LHB, shift vs. no shift, 2021-22
Shift: .210 BA / .305 OBP / .338 SLG / .643 OPS
No shift: .303 BA / .391 OBP / .447 SLG / .838 OPS

On floor balls particularly, Profar bats about 100 factors increased when not dealing with a shift. Over the final two seasons, when batting lefty, he had a .201 batting common on floor balls in opposition to a shift (31-for-154) and a .299 batting common on grounders he hit with no shift (23-for-77). He had some particularly noticeable hits taken away within the shift by a “rover” briefly proper area.

As a thought experiment, in case you modified all these 154 defensive alignments from shifted to non-shifted, and Profar had the identical .299 batting common he had on his no-shift floor balls, he’d add 15 hits over that two-season span.

Haniger is likely one of the righty sluggers who must take care of common shifts — and he might positively do with out that.

Haniger has seen steadily extra shifts yearly after his breakout 2018 season with the Mariners, when he was shifted on fewer than one in 5 plate appearances. By 2022, he was being shifted nearly three quarters of the time, a profession excessive.

Haniger’s shift % by season, since 2018
2018: 19% of PA
2019: 42% of PA
2020: Did not play
2021: 56% of PA
2022: 71% of PA

That’s 60% of his complete plate appearances over the past two years the place Haniger needed to hit in opposition to a shift. He was been shifted in opposition to greater than nearly 95% of right-handed hitters with a comparable variety of plate appearances.

That improve in shifts did not cease Haniger from mashing 39 dwelling runs in 2021, nevertheless it harm him on his balls in play. Shortstops can play deep within the gap towards third base, with an additional fielder shifted to the left facet of the second-base bag, taking hits away in a location the place Haniger will rip the ball.

Even in his slugging 2021 season, Haniger’s numbers might have been even higher if defenses weren’t allowed to shift him. On the balls he hit that weren’t dwelling runs, Haniger batted simply .174 in opposition to the shift (58-for-333), and .242 when he wasn’t dealing with a shift (60-for-248). 

He had extra complete base hits with no shift on than he did in opposition to the shift, on nearly 100 fewer balls in play.

Smith is trying to bounce again to the hitter he was in 2019 and ’20 (150 OPS+), earlier than he struggled in his final two seasons with the Mets whereas not getting common at-bats (78 OPS+). Maybe hitting shift-free some other place in 2023 will assist.

The lefty-swinging Smith began seeing an increasing number of shifts after he began slugging extra. That took its toll.

In 2019, Smith was shifted on below half of his plate appearances, and broke out with a 132 OPS+. The subsequent 12 months, groups made a minor defensive adjustment to 51% shifts, nonetheless removed from the most-shifted left-handed hitters. He posted a 168 OPS+ and bought MVP votes.

In that 2020 season, Smith actually began driving the ball to the pull area. Over two-thirds of his hits, and over three quarters of his extra-base hits, had been to the suitable facet. Smith had essentially the most extra-base hits to the pull half of the sphere of any left-handed hitter.

LHB with most XBH to drag half of area, 2020

Then the shifts went up. In 2021, opposing defenses shifted Smith over 60% of the time. In 2022, that quantity jumped to over 70%. And Smith began shedding extra hits on his onerous contact.

Last season, when Smith hit the ball onerous to the pull facet (which means an exit velocity of 95-plus mph), his batting common was simply .290. Only 9 of his 31 hard-hit balls became hits.

That was the third-lowest amongst MLB lefties, whose batting common as a bunch on these balls was .475. Or examine Smith’s 2022 to his 2020, when his common on onerous, pull-side contact was .511. 

Without full-on infield shifts in 2023, possibly a few of these balls will flip into hits once more for Smith, and assist him flip issues round for a brand new workforce.