Every team’s projected 2023 HR leader
It’s about that point once more. With baseball’s return simply across the nook, we will not assist however throw round predictions for the 2023 season. This yr, extra projections than common are more likely to focus on dwelling run totals — in any case, this time final yr, did anybody have Aaron Judge hitting 62?
But possibly speculating isn’t your factor. Thanks to FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, right here now we have a breakdown of every membership’s projected dwelling run chief for the 2023 season, plus a man you need to keep watch over because the season progresses.
Before you go, although, take observe — most projections are conservative by nature and aren’t designed to foretell excellent seasons.
Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (39)
Guerrero had some points hitting the ball within the air final season, however he nonetheless completely mashed, hitting 32 dwelling runs after main baseball with 48 in 2021.
Keep a watch on … Brandon Belt (14): Belt hit a career-high 29 dwelling runs in 97 video games in 2021 — so who’s to say his elusive first 30-homer season couldn’t are available in Toronto?
Orioles: Anthony Santander (29)
Santander had his first 30-homer season in 2022 — he hit 33 — and on one other exceptionally younger squad, he’s projected to guide the pack once more in ’23.
Keep a watch on … Kyle Stowers (14): Stowers led all Orioles Minor Leaguers with 27 dwelling runs in 2021 and has a shot at a daily function in Baltimore in ’23.
Rays: Brandon Lowe (27)
Nothing earth-shattering right here — Lowe hit 39 dwelling runs in 2021, and will he return to full well being, it’s secure to imagine he can anchor the Rays’ light-hitting lineup in ’23.
Keep a watch on … Jose Siri (17): Siri has proven some spectacular pop within the Minors. Ahead of the Deadline deal that despatched him to Tampa Bay, he hit 9 homers in his final 16 Triple-A video games.
Red Sox: Rafael Devers (32)
Devers has led the Red Sox in dwelling runs for 3 consecutive seasons, and now that he’s signed till 2033, that’s not more likely to change for some time.
Keep a watch on … Triston Casas (19): Boston is more likely to lean on Casas at first base, which ought to give him loads of time to harness the uncooked energy that has him ranked MLB’s No. 23 prospect.
Yankees: Aaron Judge (44)
We’re not stunned. Neither are you. Steamer’s projections have the AL’s new dwelling run king following his record-breaking 2022 season by main the Majors with 44 homers in 2023.
Keep a watch on … Anthony Volpe (10): Baseball’s No. 5 general prospect has developed critical pop in his time as knowledgeable and even has an out of doors probability at turning into the Yankees’ Opening Day shortstop.
Guardians: José Ramírez (30)
It’s been three seasons since anybody aside from Ramírez led the Guardians in dwelling runs, so this shouldn’t come as a shock. Steamer predicts Ramírez will attain the 30-homer mark in 2023 after simply lacking it in ’22.
Keep a watch on … Mike Zunino (15): Though sidelined for many of 2022, a wholesome Zunino has as a lot pure energy as anybody.
Keep a watch on … Nick Pratto (13): He could battle to seek out taking part in time behind Pasquantino, however Pratto has a ton of energy at his disposal if he can carve out house for himself.
Tigers: Javier Báez (22)
The Tigers, who didn’t have a single participant hit 20 dwelling runs in 2022, are projected to have two in ‘23 — Báez and Austin Meadows (20).
Keep a watch on … Eric Haase (12): Haase has averaged 18 dwelling runs in 104 video games over the previous two seasons, and he’s more likely to get quite a lot of taking part in time.
Twins: Byron Buxton (32)
Buxton performed simply 92 video games final season and nonetheless led the Twins with 28 dwelling runs. It’s secure to say that, ought to he get a full wholesome 2023 marketing campaign, he’s fairly more likely to do it once more.
Keep a watch on … Joey Gallo (20): He’s coming off a season he’d quite neglect, however Gallo is simply 29 — so there’s no actual motive he couldn’t get again to his 40-homer glory in Minnesota.
White Sox: Eloy Jiménez (31)
Jiménez is reportedly feeling wholesome after two consecutive injury-plagued seasons, so 31 homers, which might match his private finest, may appear a conservative estimate by season’s finish.
Keep a watch on … Yoán Moncada (17): Moncada has by no means fairly matched the nice numbers from his breakout 2019 season, however he is simply 27.
Angels: Mike Trout (39)
Trout managed to hit 40 dwelling runs in 119 video games in 2022, so 39 in a wholesome season appears fairly affordable. (Before you ask, Shohei Ohtani is simply on his heels, projected to hit 35.)
Keep a watch on … Jared Walsh (20): Walsh fell off the radar final season attributable to a persistent damage, however he’s since undergone surgical procedure to alleviate signs of thoracic outlet syndrome.
Astros: Yordan Alvarez (36)
Since his 2019 debut, Alvarez has set a daft dwelling run tempo, averaging 43 per 162 video games.
Keep a watch on … Jeremy Peña (21): His strategy may be over-aggressive at occasions, however Peña’s pull-side energy solely stands to enhance as he matures.
Athletics: Ramón Laureano / Seth Brown (22)
Brown led the A’s in dwelling runs in 2023, and whereas Laureano hasn’t topped 100 video games since 2019, he was on a 22-homer tempo by 94 in ’22.
Keep a watch on … Jesús Aguilar (17): Aguilar has a couple of big seasons behind him — together with a 2018 marketing campaign by which he hit 35 homers.
Mariners: Julio Rodríguez (32)
Seattle’s offense already revolves round 22-year-old Rodríguez — so it’s all good news right here for the Mariners.
Keep a watch on … Jarred Kelenic (15): The Mariners are nonetheless ready for all the things to click on for Kelenic, however his odds do look higher after a Triple-A marketing campaign by which he hit .295/.365/.557 with 18 dwelling runs in 86 video games.
Rangers: Adolis García / Corey Seager (27)
Texas’ 2022 group leaders in dwelling runs (Seager) and RBIs (García) are projected to maintain powering the Rangers in ’23.
Keep a watch on … Mitch Garver (16): He’s most likely not the man who slugged .630 in 2019, however assuming good well being, matching the .517 mark he posted in 2021 appears an inexpensive purpose.
Braves: Austin Riley (35)
Riley has been top-of-the-line hitters within the NL for 2 seasons, so it’d be nothing surprising if he adopted up 33- and 38-homer seasons with one other 35.
Keep a watch on … Michael Harris II (22): The reigning NL Rookie of the Year hit 19 dwelling runs in 114 video games in 2022, a 27-homer tempo.
Marlins: Jazz Chisholm Jr. (27)
We’ve but to see Chisholm play a full, wholesome season, however he did hit 14 dwelling runs in simply 60 video games in 2022.
Mets: Pete Alonso (39)
As per common, Alonso is projected to knock the quilt off the ball in 2023 and radically outpace any of his teammates — Francisco Lindor’s 24 homers rank second in Steamer’s projections.
Keep a watch on … Francisco Álvarez (6): MLB’s No. 3 prospect has outrageous energy and stands probability of displacing the Mets’ extra skilled catching choices.
Nationals: Joey Meneses (27)
One of baseball’s largest surprises in 2022, Meneses’ 13 dwelling runs in 56 video games bodes effectively for his manufacturing in 2023.
Keep a watch on … Stone Garrett (10): The 27-year-old has spent the final two seasons placing up excellent energy numbers within the Minors and will have the chance to compete for taking part in time right here.
Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (39)
The NL’s 2022 dwelling run king is projected to guide the league for a second straight season, tied with Alonso.
Keep a watch on … Darick Hall (12): He hit 28 dwelling runs in 101 Triple-A video games in 2022, then one other 9 in 42 with the Phillies.
Brewers: Rowdy Tellez (30)
With Hunter Renfroe transferring on to the Angels, Tellez is the Brewers’ major energy risk, projected to succeed in 30 homers for the second straight season.
Keep a watch on … Jesse Winker (16): His slugging proportion dropped over 200 factors in 2022, however higher issues ought to be forward after his transfer to Milwaukee.
Cardinals: Nolan Arenado / Paul Goldschmidt (29)
It’s definitely no shock to see St. Louis’ pair of 2022 NL MVP Award finalists right here. Goldschmidt and Arenado additionally completed 1-2 on the membership in homers final yr, each reaching or surpassing the 30 mark.
Keep a watch on … Jordan Walker (12): MLB’s newly minted No. 4 general prospect has huge energy potential, if he can nail down a daily job.
Cubs: Seiya Suzuki (25)
Suzuki’s energy didn’t shine in his in any other case robust rookie marketing campaign, however he did hit 38 dwelling runs in his remaining season with NPB’s Hiroshima Carp in 2021, so the potential is definitely there.
Keep a watch on … Cody Bellinger (18): Bellinger has alternative to reestablish himself as a legit energy risk because the Cubs’ major middle fielder — assuming he’s wholesome.
Pirates: Oneil Cruz (27)
Cruz has established himself as considered one of baseball’s most explosive younger hitters, and given a virtually full season, he’s projected to strategy the 30-homer mark.
Keep a watch on … Rodolfo Castro (15): There’s room for Castro to power his means right into a beginning function in Pittsburgh. In his second stint with the Pirates in 2022, he hit 10 dwelling runs in 50 video games.
Reds: Wil Myers (20)
Cincinnati’s most notable free-agent signing of the offseason, Myers hasn’t topped 20 dwelling runs since hitting 30 in 2017.
Keep a watch on … Joey Votto (18): Injuries reduce off his 2022 marketing campaign, however don’t low cost the opportunity of one other 2021-style resurgence for the 39-year-old.
D-backs: Christian Walker (28)
Even anticipating a full season from Corbin Carroll, Walker is more likely to stay the D-backs’ major slugger by a protracted shot.
Keep a watch on … Kyle Lewis (13): Injuries have derailed the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year, however he hit 15 dwelling runs in 46 Minor League video games in 2022.
Dodgers: Mookie Betts (31)
Betts is projected to be the one Dodger to succeed in the 30-homer mark for the second straight season.
Keep a watch on … James Outman (16): Between Double-A and Triple-A final season, Outman hit 31 dwelling runs in 125 video games, and there ought to be room for him within the outfield.
Giants: Mitch Haniger (24)
In his final wholesome season, Haniger hit 39 dwelling runs — however that mark is probably going past attain with the transfer to Oracle Park.
Keep a watch on … Joey Bart (12): 2022 wasn’t an ideal yr on the plate for the 26-year-old, however he’s nonetheless the man who slugged .508 within the Minors.
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. (35)
Before his forgettable 2022, Tatis did lead the NL with 42 dwelling runs in 2021.
Keep a watch on … Nelson Cruz (9): Having undergone surgical procedure to right imaginative and prescient issues in his left eye, Cruz may expertise a return to type in 2023.
Rockies: C.J. Cron (27)
The veteran has led the Rockies on this class for 2 seasons in a row and figures to have shot to increase that streak.
Keep a watch on … Michael Toglia (10): His taking part in time may rely upon Cron himself, however in Toglia the Rockies have a man who hit 30 dwelling runs within the Minors in 2022.
