Belt adds balance, offensive upside to Blue Jays’ 2023 lineup mix

Baseball

Published 11.01.2023

Belt adds balance, offensive upside to Blue Jays’ 2023 lineup mix

TORONTO – Rather quietly, the Blue Jays have undergone quite a lot of change over the course of the previous few months.

After tilting closely to the correct for years, the Toronto lineup now seems much more balanced with the additions of the left-handed Kevin Kiermaier, Daulton Varsho and Brandon Belt. A one-year deal valued at $9.3 million makes Belt the newest addition to a Blue Jays batting order that offers supervisor John Schneider some welcome flexibility.

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There’s danger in signing Belt, who missed a lot of the 2022 season as a result of a knee harm, and we’ll get to that. But since this deal could be the final important transfer for the Blue Jays this low season, let’s begin by seeing how they’ll deploy their lineup in 2023.

Against right-handed beginning pitching, they may line issues up like this:

RF George Springer (R)
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (R)
SS Bo Bichette (R)
C Alejandro Kirk (R)
LF Daulton Varsho (L) profession .781 OPS vs. RHP
3B Matt Chapman (R)
DH Brandon Belt (L) profession .840 OPS vs. RHP
2B Cavan Biggio (L) profession .749 OPS vs. RHP
CF Kevin Kiermaier (L) profession .735 OPS vs. RHP

Lineups evolve, in fact. The Blue Jays used 147 of them final yr. And lifetime OPS is admittedly imperfect – it’s merely meant to convey a normal sense of a participant’s skills. But this state of affairs – one that features Danny Jansen, Whit Merrifield and Santiago Espinal on the bench – can be powerful on opposing pitchers and managers.

Against lefties, in the meantime, the Blue Jays may use a lineup alongside these traces:

RF George Springer (R)
1B Vlad Guerrero Jr. (R)
SS Bo Bichette (R)
DH Alejandro Kirk (R)
3B Matt Chapman (R)
C Danny Jansen (R)
2B Whit Merrifield (R) profession .807 OPS vs. LHP
LF Daulton Varsho (L) profession .615 OPS vs. LHP
CF Kevin Kiermaier (L) profession .661 OPS vs. LHP

Or, relying on the matchup, they may transfer Merrifield to an outfield nook and begin Espinal and his lifetime .802 OPS in opposition to lefties at second base whereas resting Varsho or Kiermaier. In both state of affairs, Belt can be accessible off the bench together with Biggio, giving Schneider choices late in video games.

Again, these lineups will change early and sometimes. Jansen’s way over a platoon participant. Kiermaier gained’t essentially bat ninth. But by taking a look at these prospects, we get a way of how the addition of Belt may play out in real-time.

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With greater than a month remaining earlier than spring coaching, 12 place participant spots are spoken for on the Blue Jays’ roster and all 12 of these gamers determine to begin considerably commonly – a distinction to 2022, when the likes of Bradley Zimmer and Gabriel Moreno have been round however hardly ever beginning.

A affected person hitter with a lifetime stroll fee of 12.1 per cent, Belt will likely be powerful to maintain out of the lineup if he comes wherever close to his lifetime batting line of .261/.356/.458. With that stated, these numbers are removed from a certainty following a 2022 season by which a knee harm restricted him to 78 video games and a .213/.326/.350 batting line.

Belt didn’t play after August 20^th of final yr – removed from splendid for a participant hitting free company. Evidently, the Blue Jays felt adequate about his well being prospects to make him a major supply, however he nonetheless comes at a major low cost in comparison with his 2022 wage of $18.4 million.

Now, the Blue Jays get to see how shut he can get to the 2021 type that noticed him hit a career-high 29 house runs in simply 97 video games. He figures to begin at DH commonly whereas additionally spelling Guerrero Jr. at first base as wanted (on days Jansen catches, Kirk may pinch-hit for Belt in opposition to powerful lefties late in video games).

Though Belt has expertise taking part in left and proper subject, he final began within the outfield in 2019. With his 35^th birthday approaching and up to date knee points to handle, there’s no have to power it. Instead, Merrifield and Biggio can deal with fourth outfield duties with Nathan Lukes, one other left-handed hitter, accessible as depth.

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At this level, Merrifield initiatives to see loads of outfield taking part in time, although that dynamic may shift relying on how the Blue Jays resolve to make use of their closing place participant spot. But there’s little level in worrying about that now. Those choices sometimes final till the top of spring coaching and evolve shortly in-season.

With a full 40-man roster and a projected payroll of $241 million, based on FanGraphs, the Blue Jays have possible accomplished the majority of their low season buying (they’ll need to clear a 40-man spot for Belt, whose deal has not but been made official). So whereas minor-league offers are all the time potential, this can be the final main transfer till the commerce deadline.

If that’s the case, the Blue Jays may have changed Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Ross Stripling, Jackie Bradley Jr., Raimel Tapia, Gabriel Moreno and David Phelps with Chris Bassitt, Erik Swanson, Varsho, Kiermaier and Belt.

The ensuing group has an opportunity to be among the best within the American League. They’ve improved defensively, with the potential for extra steadiness within the batting order. Yet potential and pedigree solely matter to the extent that they present up on the sphere. After a season marred by harm, the query of what Belt can supply on the plate will play a significant position in figuring out the depth of the Blue Jays’ 2023 offence.