Canada’s flu season is winding down, data shows, but it may be the calm before a COVID storm | 24CA News

While the early months of the yr typically mark the height of flu season, Canada is beginning 2023 already via the worst — although physicians are actually bracing for extra hospitalizations forward, largely because of a possible spike in COVID-19.

The newest figures from a number of provinces present a gentle drop in influenza instances within the weeks main into the brand new yr, whereas federal knowledge launched Friday confirmed flu exercise has “declined sharply” from its peak on the finish of November.

The weekly share of flu assessments coming again constructive dropped from roughly 13 per cent in the course of the second-last week of December to lower than 9 per cent within the final week of 2022.

“Flu season’s not quite over, but it’s declining quickly now,” mentioned clinician-scientist Dr. Allison McGeer, a professor on the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, in a Friday morning interview with 24CA News.

Though it hit onerous and quick, placing excessive numbers of kids in hospital final fall, Canada’s general influenza season wound up echoing the expertise of nations within the southern hemisphere, comparable to Australia. 

“Which is: Early season, sharp peak, but then coming down pretty quickly,” McGeer mentioned. “And a lot of disease in kids — so very hard on pediatric hospitals and people who care for children — but actually pretty quiet for adults.”

Over the course of Canada’s flu season, greater than 1,500 pediatric influenza-associated hospitalizations have been reported, together with 183 youngsters ending up in intensive care. 

There have additionally been six influenza-associated pediatric deaths, the newest federal knowledge exhibits, although prior 24CA News reporting instructed the total depend among the many provinces may very well be larger, with at the very least 11 youngsters dying of flu final yr throughout B.C., Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario. 

Several physicians informed 24CA News they’re now planning for a possible wave of COVID to begin up, whereas flu continues to be winding down.

Concerns stay over COVID, RSV

Federal knowledge confirmed an uptick in SARS-CoV-2 assessments coming again constructive throughout a number of areas by the top of 2022.

Part of the priority additionally stems from the unfold of extremely transmissible Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5, which has been reported in a number of Canadian provinces and near 30 nations overseas.

The subvariant started spreading amid a busy vacation season of socializing after which continued as youngsters returned to highschool and lots of adults headed again to work.

Bivalent booster photographs are anticipated to assist chase away an infection, however safety could also be fading for Canadians whose final COVID vaccine dose was a number of months in the past or extra, McGeer warned — and anybody who skipped out on the newest up to date vaccines may very well be significantly in danger.

“That combination might mean a significant increase of hospitalizations through January and February,” McGeer mentioned, “and I think that’s what’s worrying people the most at the moment.”

WATCH | A robust flu season, now an uptick in COVID instances:

Hospital bursting with sick youngsters braces for inflow of adults

As the extreme flu season places extraordinary strain on the health-care system, 24CA News goes inside a busy Ontario hospital to see how workers are struggling to deal with the surge of critically sick youngsters whereas bracing a brand new wave of grownup influenza sufferers.

COVID will proceed making the scenario in hospitals troublesome, all whereas circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) additionally stays excessive, which might proceed bringing extra sick youngsters into pediatric hospitals, famous Dr. Srinivas Murthy, a scientific affiliate professor with University of British Columbia’s college of drugs.

“As the strain has been visible over the health system for the last couple of months, I think our capacity to respond remains a challenge,” he mentioned.

“We’re still seeing much higher levels of RSV-related admissions than we have before,” echoed Dr. Nisha Thampi, medical director of an infection prevention and management on the Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario (CHEO).

“I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet.”